A PC Party is exactly what Alberta needs

Danielle Smith and the UCP have been running roughshod over Albertans; a PC party changes everything.

I wouldn’t even try to pretend I’m not ridiculously excited about the potential resurgence of a progressive conservative party in Alberta. Some of that is entirely selfish — I’m so done with the UCP acting like they’re invincible. Let’s not kid ourselves — since Rachel Notley stepped down, they basically have been. The UCP have been like bulls in a china shop since.

I’m of the mind that it’s because they know no one is going to stop them. They can be entirely dismissive of the Alberta NDP because they know that self-styled conservatives will not vote NDP. The reason they “won’t listen to”, and “will not take advice from” the Alberta NDP is because they don’t have to and they’ve taken advantage of that fact as any entitled government can.

The worst thing that can happen to the UCP at election time is that angry conservatives stay home. That’s what happened last election. The logical conclusion is that UCP, even with the worst possible leader — well, the worst possible leader so far — has a floor of support that is higher than the Alberta NDP’s ceiling. At least, they did until yesterday.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely

The Alberta NDP is a decent opposition in practice; they’ve done their absolute best to hold this government to account and I cannot fault them for their efforts.

What they have not been is a threat to the UCP and it’s not entirely their fault — though the decision to keep their inner circle as small as they did was a mistake of monumental proportions but I’ve spent more than enough effort on that critique — they became government in a province that has been groomed to vote conservative for generations. Alberta voters are the epitome of Pavlov’s dog; they can’t vote conservative hard enough when their scribblers and leaders ring out “Ottawa bad!”

That was the rocky mountain they always had to climb and they seemed determined to try and find a way around it instead.

The UCP knows that the NDP are not a threat. They have been utterly ignorant to the opposition, and by extension, Albertans who voted for them. They have acted like they are completely unopposed because, in the most basic terms, they have been; their supporters and voters aren’t listening to the NDP either.

A PC party, with the Hon. Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair — credible conservative voices — will have the ability to reach conservative voters. Those voters have the power to hold the United Conservative Party to account in a way that the NDP opposition, or people who voted NDP, never will.

It’s a sad reality that the governing party is completely willing to ignore the voices of so many Albertans but it has been our reality nonetheless. A bona fide conservative alternative can change that.

At this moment, it’s far too early to say whether they would be able to launch a credible challenge to the UCP. What I want more than anything else is for the UCP to smarten up and actually listen to Albertans — whether they voted UCP or not. That has been sorely missing from this government and, frankly, I’m more than done with their shoddy behaviour.

A snap election

We aren’t supposed to head to the polls until October of 2027 but the option is always available to call a snap election. The threat that the Hon. Mr. Guthrie and Mr. Sinclair always posed to the UCP is now greater because they’ve signaled their intention to act on their privilege of being in the Legislature. Now Danielle Smith and her sidekick “FreeAlbertaRob” must weigh their options: allow a PC option to grow over the next two years, or call an election and hope they wipe both of them out?

This is the fun stuff right here.

Pros: both Mr. Guthrie and Mr. Sinclair lose their seats, the NDP loses seats, and Danielle Smith has a mandate to keep blowing apart public services with no plan.

The reward is amazing. What could possibly go wrong? If you’re convinced you’re invincible, it might even be a no-brainer. Or, as Mr, Guthrie said yesterday on Ryan Jespersen “you’d have to be crazy to call an early election — or, maybe that’s why she will.”

Ms. Smith said that she’s been raking in the dough with her big donors at fundraising dinners and her party is out-fundraising the Alberta NDP 3-1. A snap election would mean no one else has time to prepare, and Danielle Smith could bury the opposition for good just like Jim Prentice in 2015!

Oh. Right.

Cons: Campaigns matter. Albertans are forced to pay attention and — oh, crap— they find out about the independent police service they didn’t want to pay for, the procurement scandal cover up, out-of-control spending and government overreach, and Smith’s support of the separatist agenda; Albertans are pissed. The PC party has 87 candidates, the NDP has 87 candidates, the UCP has 87 candidates and no one knows who’s going to come out on top. The UCP could lose government. Or not. But maybe. Who knows?

The risks are as great as the rewards. Personally, I’d say they’re too far into the separatist schtick to hide it if they called an early election. In the middle of a mandate, few people are paying enough attention to make a fuss over it but if they called an election, they wouldn’t be able to escape it.

With that being said, these two have made exceptionally stupid political moves before and they may very well be gearing up to do so again. I wouldn’t put it past them.

The “vote split”

I don’t believe in a “vote split”. A party earns your vote or they don’t. Stephen Carter of the Strategists says multiple parties just lower the percentage of votes the winner needs to… well, win. Corey Hogan (on hiatus of course) of the Strategists says vote splitting absolutely exists when you have two things that are basically the same to choose from.

They’re both wrong and I’m right as the outcome of the 2023 federal election proves. The Liberals and the Conservatives provided the alternative people were willing to vote for and the NDP did not. Some, the UCP for example, like to say that the NDP-Liberals are the same party. They say that because to them, they are the same — they’re not conservative.

To voters who support those parties, however, they are not the same at all. Much like the Wildrose and the PCs were called “the same party” by people who wouldn’t vote for them; people who supported the PCs knew damned well they were not the same party and so did those who supported the Wildrose.

Jason Kenney needed to get rid of the options because those voters knew the parties were different and they were both more likely to stand their ground until they could be convinced to change their votes — even if the NDP kept winning. Monied conservatives in Alberta couldn’t have that so they ensured Mr. Kenney was well-funded to do what needed to be done.

As Premier Smith humble-bragged at yesterday’s press conference, her party is rolling in the dough because people with lots of money are willing to shower her with it.

Must be something in the, ahem, water.

I don’t believe in vote-splitting because people vote for who they think will win, who they want to win, or who they want to support. Yes, taking away options makes it more likely that a favoured choice will win, but it’s not because it’s actually a better choice — as the current iteration of the separatist UCP should demonstrate.

The UCP needs to be worried

We should mostly be able to agree that the UCP is running away with the province and they have no reason to stop. Danielle Smith is locked in to making bad policy on false beliefs and needs to be worried about her party’s future. As their behaviour has clearly demonstrated, that will not happen under the current circumstances.

These people walked into a town hall in Fort MacLeod — easily a conservative stronghold — and lied their faces off about the danger of coal mining and the reason they backtracked on the policy.

Danielle Smith and her awful caucus will keep lying and they will keep making bad policy decisions until they are convinced that Albertans have the option to vote for someone else.

That someone else has just appeared and it’s a good thing, for all of us.

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