Analysis: little movement favours the liberals for now

Are the campaigns finding their way or are they on a roll? I read, I listen, I converse; then I write.

In the 1988 election, the last time free trade was on the table, almost 75 per cent of Canadians showed up to vote in the federal election. More than 35 years later, free trade is once again on the table, but more importantly, so is our right to self-determination as a country.

During the early days of the pandemic, when we were all finding ways to busy ourselves but also, suddenly, taking more time to tune in to the daily covid updates or the news generally, I felt the groundswell of annoyance with then-Premier Jason Kenney.

Meanwhile, John Horgan in B.C., and Doug Ford in Ontario among others, not only remained likeable and retained their former support, but each became more popular with their constituents.

It was a compelling comparison to how Albertans were reacting to Jason Kenney after he had won such an impressive mandate from Albertans less than a year prior. It appeared that Albertans, when they were forced to pay attention to what their provincial leadership was actually doing, were less than pleased.

As a person who used to ignore politics between casting my vote, unless it was ungraciously shoved in my face, I understand how easy it is to let it slide further down the list of priorities that actually are facing us every single day.

At the beginning of 2025, a huge majority of Canadians were jolted away from their everyday priorities as word spread that Donald Trump was making threats against Canada.

Who threatens Canada?

More and more Canadians began paying attention as Mr. Trump was inaugurated, and reiterated his threats to our economic partnership with the U.S.. They perked up again when Mr. Trump made good on his threats to apply tariffs to Canadian exports in February.

He walked those back, but it forced Canadians to take Mr. Trump’s threats to our way of life seriously.

Mr. Trump threw tariffs at us again in March, which caused a big reaction from Premier Doug Ford in Ontario, and even, however briefly, a reasonably strong repudiation from Premier Danielle Smith in Alberta.

Canadians were paying attention.

Federally, the Liberal leadership race wrapped up shortly thereafter and Mark Carney, after being sworn in as the 24th Prime Minister of Canada, was heavily rumoured to be considering a relatively quick election call.

On April 2, Mr. Trump promised yet another round of tariffs on goods imported into the U.S.. Here in Canada, we are steadily moving along in the second week of a federal election campaign, and still, Canadians are paying attention.

Here and now

I’m focused on what is captivating our attention for a reason — voters are not just passive outlets awaiting input. At times, certainly, that may be true, but when we have concerns, we expect our political representatives to be mirroring those back to us.

It’s true that voter outreach matters, campaigns matter, and a solid ground game matters — most of the time.

I say “most of the time” because when the politicians and their campaigns are responding to voters instead of desperately trying to get voters to respond to them, it is an entirely different type of election.

When there is momentum, it can go beyond a campaign’s ability to manipulate. When people have already made up their minds, they can be very difficult to move.

As Jason Kenney found out during the pandemic, even though a large majority of people wanted to hear from him when he was talking about “jobs, economy, pipelines”, they did not want to hear from him when they were looking for information on public health. It wasn’t a strength attributed to him when he was elected, and people actively turned away from him when he tried to insert himself into the role.

In my view, this is what Pierre Poilievre is fighting with in the early days of the campaign. He’s the anti-Trudeau attack dog who was going to “axe the tax”, “stop the crime”, “verb the noun”, and he’s the guy who could get applause by saying “Canada is broken” over, and over, again.

What Canadians are looking for now, though, is someone who is going to lead their country through economic and geopolitical turmoil. They are looking for someone who is well beyond “axe the tax” and the exact opposite of “Canada is broken”.

I’ve been watching his videos and listening to his stump speeches and I worry he has a credibility issue; I’m not sure if it’s because he can’t quite get to where he needs to be in this campaign, or if my memory recall is getting in the way. I hear reluctance from him. I also hear promises that don’t strike me as being within his power to give; they’re nice but hollow.

Pierre Poilievre welcomed the turmoil in the final days of pandemic restrictions. His message resonated with those who felt attacked by blanket public health restrictions that applied to everyone equally. It may be because Mr. Poilievre’s messaging resonated so well that they’ve doubled down on what worked before as if that’s what Canadians are still looking for from them.

To be fair, their numbers haven’t dropped that much overall, but it’s been enough to let the liberals overtake them.

It’s just a feeling (but it’s usually right)

Mr. Carney is managing to project understated strength better. It’s possible his pressers are no longer scripted, which seemed to work much better for him during the leadership campaign.

Despite a couple of hiccups, Mr. Carney’s first week was as good as one could hope. That’s not to say Mr. Poilievre’s wasn’t good, but with no movement in the polls, you know it’s not what they wanted out of it.

Before the campaign began pollsters were saying the Liberal support was “soft” but I’m beginning to think the conservative support is as well.

I listen, I ask questions, and I pick up on feelings.

I think conservatives are waiting for Pierre Poilievre to meet the moment they are in and become the solution to the problem they have.

When Pierre Poilievre says “knock it off”, he sounds like he’s talking to a classmate who is drumming their pencil during a test; or a child who’s trying to get his attention by singing louder and louder while he’s on the phone. He doesn’t sound like he’s talking to a hostile foreign government who is applying economic pressure to our country in order to get us to voluntarily reject our own sovereignty.

I believe that conservatives are waiting, and hoping, that Mr. Poilievre has something more in these next four weeks that will shift the support from Mark Carney’s Liberals. If Mr. Poilievre cannot deliver, I expect to see a shift in support from the conservatives.

There’s also the factor of NDP support that has been halved since Mr. Carney won the Liberal leadership. NDP support still exists, with the potential to elect around seven MPs across the country, but I don’t know that it’s solid either. As of right now, long-time Green Party leader Elizabeth May does not look like she’ll manage re-election. If long-time supporters are moving with the momentum, the NDP support could still fully collapse and there’s no telling where those votes will end up.

Conservatives, according to those who are talking to media outside of the campaign, are much more worried about the NDP collapse.

What we saw across Canada in 2019 and 2021 was that conservative support grew in places like Alberta and Saskatchewan. Sure, they took back four seats from the Liberals in Alberta in 2019, but two of them came back in 2021 (and they all look like they are in play again this election); and they couldn’t coalesce support in vote-rich urban centres.

Without a split in support on the left, the CPC’s ability to make headway in those areas is stunted.

Unlike the 2023 Alberta election, where each party had their support entrenched before the election, I still see the support of both the CPC and Liberals being a little fluid. Not all of it, obviously, but enough to move to a massive Liberal majority or potentially a conservative minority.

Neither campaign can take their current support for granted, but being that the Liberals are building back their support as opposed to coasting with what they had before the election started, I think this scenario, right now at least, favours the Liberals.

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