Beyond our control: COP28 commits to fossil fuel phase-out
If the UCP won't stand up for Albertans against predictable future costs here, what good are they?
COP28 concluded with a commitment to move “away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
I dare say that almost sounds like a “just transition”.
If you didn’t see this coming, you just might be a conservative in Alberta.
Former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, in his speech at the end of the G7 leader’s conference in June of 2015 — six months before the Paris Climate Summit — said that the fossil fuel phase-out was “inevitable”.
“In our own national targets, not just 2050 or the end of the century, even talking about 2030, the kinds of targets we’re talking about will require transformation in our energy sectors.
Canada already has the cleanest electricity-generating sector (on average), among just about any developed country, we hope to go farther on that (Alberta and Saskatchewan), but to achieve… these kinds of milestones over the decades to come will require serious technological transformation.
I don’t think we should fool ourselves; nobody’s going to start to shut down their industries or turn off the lights — we just have to find a way to create lower carbon emitting sources of energy and as you know our government has made substantial investments in that type of technological development.”
Since Harper was no longer Prime Minister by the end of 2015, acknowledging the fossil fuel phase-out is happening is generally attributed to the Prime Minister who attended the Paris Climate Summit in December of that year; the man who a dwindling, but still active majority of Alberta voters, influencers, lobbyists, and policy makers love to point their fingers at — Justin Trudeau.
Dance to the beat of a different drum
That Albertans are targeted with misinformation (or a lack of information generally) because a reliable vote is far more important to our current governing party than our ability to manage these massive, “inevitable” changes is difficult to accept as “business as usual”, but it’s been going on for so long that it certainly fits.
From former Premier Jim Prentice’s initial refusal to even acknowledge Alberta was heading for another oil-related recession in January of 2015, to the Harper government’s eventual admission in the summer of that same year, Albertans have been kept in the dark by those who willingly exploit our government-enabled reliance on oil and gas.
It’s definitely “business as usual” with the current leadership in the province.
After two weeks of mixing and mingling with officials from around the world, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith credited her and the provincial entourage’s attendance at the UN Climate Conference (COP28) with “pushing back against the voices of those obsessed with accelerating the phaseout of sustainable and affordable energy derived from abated oil and natural gas”.
The amount of spin is actually dizzying.
While some critics have said that the declaration did not go far enough, it certainly should be enough to get the attention of those with their heads buried firmly in the (oil) sand. Emphasis on “should”.
That the fossil fuel phase-out is happening is no longer even the climax of this long-winded storyline — it’s how Danielle Smith and her brand of anti-regulation conservatives plan to deal with the fallout.
To me, the “Alberta Advantage” was a bill of goods sold to Albertans as beneficial to them when it was really about corporate advantages. Our low tax environment has never really been sustainable, as Danielle Smith pointed out during the UCP leadership campaign in 2022.
If Alberta brings in $11 billion in royalties but uses $8 billion for general revenue, Alberta has a structural deficit of $8 billion, she said.
Unfortunately, thanks to inefficient security for oil and gas infrastructure remediation, Alberta’s structural deficit is set to be far greater than what we’ve ever seen before.
The truth hurts the bottom line
We know the oil and gas lobby has, for decades, wielded its hefty weight (read: money) when it comes to government policy.
In return for less regulation/tax/obligation/accountability, they have paid billions. I haven’t done the math (and we all know it might be wrong if I did) but I have to wonder if they came out ahead or if they spent just as much, or more, for those “wins”.
We’ve been warned for decades that oil and gas was not going to pay out forever but as the global transition away from fossil fuels continues, the reality is that our governments have failed to hold these economic powerhouses to account and it will be Albertans and Canadians left holding the billion-dollar bag of liabilities.
And while it will soon be too late to stop the millions — possibly billions — that Smith and the UCP are likely to throw at oil and gas over the next three and a half years, Albertans don’t have to just bend over in anticipation.
It’s not “anti-oil”, and especially not “anti-Albertan” to point this out — in fact, nothing could be more “pro-Albertan” than doing so.
If Albertans don’t want to see what’s really behind that Alberta Advantage curtain, they need to demand their chosen government act in the interests of their own bottom lines, rather than those of the oil and gas industry.
The Alberta Government should shut down the Liabilities Management Incentive Program. The time for bargaining passed a long time ago — the government has legislative tools at their disposal and needs to use them.
They should legislate measurable action, like ensuring an increased dollar amount — both paid and spent — is dedicated to the orphan well association and annual remediation projects immediately and maybe make good on former UCP leader and Premier Jason Kenney’s promise to create more well-paying jobs in oil and gas.
Albertans chose to make Danielle Smith and the UCP responsible for dealing with this mess. Alberta’s fight is not with Ottawa — it’s right here at home.
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At the UN Secretary General’s Food Systems Summit in 2021 food businesses took over the show and turned it into an opportunity for business contracts amongst themselves. Food prices had already been rising due to the pandemic and after the summit they soared. A coincidence, as one who sees a conspiracy behind every closed door I'm not so sure. Whatshisnuts, the guy with the golden gavel leading COP28 is a huge investor in renewable energy and also runs the state oil company, makes you pause to think. Especially with all the controversy over fossil fuel lobbyists. This makes me think Smith wasn't politicking about "those obsessed," with the large contingent of fossil fuel enthusiasts she was there to make deals. A smoke screen which I think COP28 has become. Will the oil industry create more jobs, perhaps a few but, they've learned to operate with skeleton crews and AI to maintain profits. This government is undeniably corporate friendly whether its oil, education or healthcare, we are going to be the losers.