Poilievre "unfazed" by crushing defeat in by-elections

But everyone else should be.

On Monday night, the Liberals took all three by-elections with decisive victories, including the close call riding of Terrebonne that was ordered back to the ballot box due to a single vote margin and an issue with a mail-in ballot. Unofficial results look more than favourably on the Liberals, who increased their support in the two Ontario ridings at the expense of both the NDP and Conservatives, while high turnout in Terrebonne kept the riding in play for the Bloc until late in the evening. To be clear, Conservatives weren’t expected to be competitive in the ridings— it wouldn’t be unlike conservatives winning in rural— but the losses were more pronounced, and we’ve seen that before.

In 2024, Liberals under Justin Trudeau saw similar decreasing support in area by-elections, though they also had an upset in a Montreal-area riding that the party had held more often than not over the past 30 years. The former Prime Minister had, by then, already started to outstay his welcome in my opinion. It was the fall of 2023 that I expected him to step down within the following year. The spring by-election losses were one more reason I thought he should have. Yet, he too seemed “unfazed”.

Political leaders who do something extraordinary, I was told by veteran politicos, have earned the privilege to choose when they leave. People like Stephen Harper, Rachel Notley, and Justin Trudeau all did something extraordinary. The Right Hon. Harper merged conservative parties and, despite an early loss that almost saw him give up, led his newly-formed party to a minority government after felling Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin with a vote of non-confidence in 2005.

The Hon. Rachel Notley, Alberta’s NDP leader, led a party with four MLAs at the Legislature’s dissolution to a majority government in 2015. With a previously unheard of show of support (in Alberta) from the party membership, the former Premier was offered the opportunity to stay on and fight the next election as well. The Right Hon. Justin Trudeau brought the federal Liberals from existential crisis come third party status to a majority government that same year.

Mr. Poilievre’s demonstration of “extraordinary” is also compelling but for entirely different reasons; he lost a 25-point lead and his own seat in the general election as well as four MPs in less than a year since.

His party’s performance in the by-elections was even more telling as support for the Conservative candidates dropped by double digits in all three.

Perhaps most remarkably, Mr. Poilievre forewent humility in favour of humiliation with a long-winded social media post that began with petulance and complaint and ended with a return to his characteristically divisive but also intentionally disturbing language.

If Conservative voters were feeling betrayed by the floor crossings, they didn’t show up to say so at the ballot boxes. If anything, the drop in support for the Conservatives, combined with the increased support for the Liberals, suggest that fewer Conservatives are unhappy with the Liberal Prime Minister or the way things have been going than Mr. Poilievre.

These numbers are not just “lower”, they’re absolutely discrediting to every complaint Mr. Poilievre is trying to sell.

We know from not-so-distant experience that voters will show up and be counted when they are displeased.

As someone in my circles pointed out, the increased support for the Liberals shows the opposite of Mr. Poilievre is claiming. If Canadians felt that the Liberals were acting in bad faith by welcoming conservative MPs into the Liberal fold, they would have denied the Liberals the three seats. Or at least put up a fight.

The decreased support for Mr. Poilievre’s CPC was higher even than the increased support for the Liberals which strongly suggests that more people who voted for his party last time were not fussed enough about Prime Minister Carney’s leadership to even bother showing up.

It’s hard to look at the fact that they didn’t and think Mr. Poilievre is taking an accurate reading of the electorate let alone the political landscape.

Again.

As he has done before, Mr. Poilievre leaned instead into a divisiveness that was based on something far deeper than ideological differences.

“Liberals expect Canadians to give up, get complacent and go away, so Carney can have total power without any accountability. That will not happen. Our country and its people are worth fighting for,” he wrote.

“I will continue to lead that fight every day and in every way in Parliament, across the country and in the next election, when Canadians will reclaim the country we know and love.”

Someone get this man a communications professional before he tweets again.

In all seriousness, the separation of “Liberals” and “Canadians”, especially in the context Mr. Poilievre chose to use them, is taking an entirely different tone, and direction, than Canadians have been signaling they want their leadership to go.

It’s a direction that has seen four MPs already walk away and, if anything, confirms to anyone who wasn’t entirely on board with Mr. Poilievre’s leadership so far that it is not going to get any better.

Mr. Poilievre’s inability to pivot during the election has been a source of much examination but his response Monday night cannot be explained away by timing or political strategy. With his brutally divisive statement, he has proven that he will never earn, nor does he deserve, the privilege of leading our country.

In contrast to Mr. Poilievre’s damning response, Prime Minister Carney’s statement showed respect for sometimes differing ideological views and sentiments while also mirroring the public’s support for Canadian unity.

I want to congratulate Tatiana Auguste, Danielle Martin, and Doly Begum on their election as the new Members of Parliament for Terrebonne, University-Rosedale, and Scarborough Southwest.

I also thank every candidate who put their name forward, across all parties. In doing so, you have strengthened our democracy at a decisive moment for Canada.

Tonight, voters have placed their trust in our new government’s plan. We accept that support with humility, determination, and a clear understanding of what this moment demands.

This is a time to come together so we can build a Canada strong for all.

That is how we will continue to govern. We will work with all parties and solicit all perspectives in Parliament. The work ahead demands collaboration, partnership, and ambition to deliver at the speed and scale Canadians are counting on.

We are building a stronger economy to make life more affordable, to create high-paying jobs, to take care of each other, and to determine our own future.

We will build a Canada this not just strong, but good; not just prosperous, but fair; not just for some, most of the time, but for all, all of the time.

That is the responsibility we have been given by Canadians. We will achieve it together.

The Rt. Hon. Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, April 13, 2026

Pierre Poilievre was gifted a second chance by the people of Battle River-Crowfoot after he lost his Ontario seat in Carlton after 21 years. He was awarded a third chance by delegated members of his party in January, even after two MP’s had crossed the floor. Now, since losing two more MP’s, three by-elections, and double digit support in each, combined with a strategic choice to separate those who voted for a different party from consideration as “Canadians”, there is no justification for giving him yet another chance to do more harm to his party, or Canada.

He’s made his choice, and it’s time for Conservatives to make theirs.

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