Polls go up, polls go down
At least, they do now.
A snapshot in time
Polling is a strange and wonderful thing. When people like the results, they are very happy, and when they don’t, they prefer to be dismissive.
Polling tells us what people were feeling in the moment they were asked; it’s a snapshot in time.
Over a longer period of time, especially outside of an election period, it is useful for measuring the mood of the electorate and showing a trend that may or may not be worth paying more attention to.
There are some common refrains about polling, three of which I’ve used as segment headings, and some good advice I saw early this morning; don’t let polls lie to you.
As in, the information is there, take it at face value and see if you can learn anything from it and then move on.
Since the fall of 2023, the polls have been fairly screaming that the electorate was not happy with the federal Liberal party. It wasn’t simply a snapshot in time, but multiple snapshots showing the same result; after more than a year, the electorate was still unhappy with leadership.
Personally, I had thought that if the polls continued to dip for six months, the Prime Minister would step down, triggering a leadership race that could have been held by the fall of 2024, setting the next leader (who would have become Prime Minister) up for a year of governance before the election in October of 2025.
When that didn’t happen, even after members of caucus publicly began to call for his resignation, I gave up hope that he would. After Donald Trump won the election that November, and Chrystia Freeland delivered the death blow in December, I was resigned to the idea that we needed an election and even if that meant wiping the Liberals off the map, it would be worth it if we had a federal government with an actual mandate to deal with the next four years.
Of course, I only had the benefit of hindsight.
Live by the polls, die by the polls
It wasn’t just that Donald Trump was elected, or that Justin Trudeau stepped down. It wasn’t just that Pierre Poilievre was an arrogant little prick who spent two years demoralizing everyone with his “Canada is broken” narrative. It probably wasn’t even Mr. Trump’s increasing rhetoric about Canada becoming the 51st state, or that he is willing to inflict economic and reputational damage on his own country, partly to put economic pressure on Canada, to get what he thinks he can.
Nor was it just that Canadians have had a surge of patriotism (not partisanship) in response, nor even, necessarily, that Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership.
All of those things together, however, much of which happened in just the first two and a half months of 2025, have had an impact on the electorate.
And while it’s possible that Canadians would have returned to the party under Justin Trudeau, I wouldn’t have given it great odds.
For decades, we’ve had luxuries that few others have.
A friend of mine went to Israel in 2018 as part of his Masters in Public Policy. When we were talking about his experience after he returned home, one of the things he said to me stuck; we don’t know how lucky we are that we can make long-term policy plans.
Surrounded by people they see as enemies, and who I suppose in turn view them the same way, they’re looking months ahead instead of years, and always with the knowledge that at any moment, they could be at war.
In my lifetime, at least, I can say that I’ve never felt that fear, and never grappled with it as a certainty. Suddenly, the possibility exists and from a place we never would have expected it — our neighbour.
Because we worked in tandem with the United States on security, military, international relations, and the economy, we haven’t put nearly as much focus on them for ourselves.
Unfortunately, that has now irreparably changed.
Pollsters are noting that this movement of support toward the liberals is “soft”; it’s a snapshot that reflects the mood of the last few moments.
If not for an outside threat, if not for economic uncertainty, if this was a regular old election where we enjoyed the privilege of our greatest concern being a consumption tax on pollutants… maybe the electorate wouldn’t be moving their support at all.
Maybe. We only really have the benefit of hindsight.
The only poll that matters is the one on election day
Still being outside of an actual election period (for now), the question of “if an election were held today…” doesn’t mean much because there isn’t an election being held today and respondents are not fully committing to their choice today.
When one poll comes out with changes — like EKOS, who was the first firm to pick up on the changes back in February — most people don’t get too excited.
Every so often, there are outliers that show something no one else picks up on due to a number of factors. During the 2023 general election in Alberta, every poll indicated that it was going to be a tight race, with Calgary deciding the outcome. Even within the city, however, it was so close that few would make a call on a probable winner on election day.
One pollster, Quito Maggi from Mainstreet, did offer to eat his hat if the NDP didn’t win. Being that he’s still with us today, I don’t think he did.
In an effort not to say “shutout” before the final buzzer, I tried to stick to the same line of “too close to call”. However, with absolutely no movement over the election campaign, and being in my space of very near Calgary, I eventually gave in and told an interviewer in Toronto that if there’s a dead heat, the advantage probably went to the conservatives.
I did have one pollster backing that up at the time; Janet Brown.
There were more saying it was too close to call, and one outlier saying the opposite, too. After all the data points are out, we’re just making our best guess at what it means.
As they say, the only poll that matters is the one on election day.
Rumour has it that election day will be much sooner rather than later, and campaigns matter, too.
Just like the trend lines were showing us something important for the past year and a half, they are showing us something equally important today.
Now we watch and see who, if anyone, takes that seriously.
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"It wasn’t just that Pierre Poilievre was an arrogant little prick who spent two years demoralizing everyone with his “Canada is broken” narrative"
Perfect, 10/10, no notes.
To me, this election is purely about leadership and character. I can appreciate the frustration that a lot of the same liberal MP’s who supported Trudeau’s policies will be prominent in a Carney government. But this is the nature of parties. Party members support the policies of the leader, regardless of whether they fully agree, unless and until there is a breaking point. E.g. Freeland. I believe Carney is far more intellectually capable and pragmatic than Trudeau. His CV proves that. And that CV is certainly more impressive than Poilievre’s surprisingly empty CV. Carney is also arguably more capable and pragmatic than Poilievre.. And certainly of better character. I’ll fully expect Carney to get security clearance to read the foreign interference report (how on earth does Poilievre still refuse to do this??) and to not attack the press as biased or fake. I’m a pure centrist who has voted more, but not exclusively, for the conservatives over the years, but I’ve seen more than enough. I’ll 1000% be supporting Carney.