Seriously disturbed: is orange the new blue?
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Seriously disturbed: is orange the new blue?
Alberta's political identity crisis is on display as a national, and international, oddity for all to see.
It’s only a week after Alberta’s general election and the punditry’s post-mortems have been rolling in like a chinook in January — with a promise of relief for some and debilitating migraines for others.
Some longtime leftists have broken rank to bemoan the party’s move to appeal to more centrist voters, something they’ve ascertained as detrimental to the party’s electoral chances moving forward.
I understand their position, even agree with it to a point, but let me lay out the reality.
A principled NDP sat for 44 years in opposition, the exact amount of time the Progressive Conservatives were in power, despite running full (or very close to full) slates in every subsequent election.
They enjoyed their biggest break in 1986 and 1989 when the party pulled enough support from the Alberta Liberals in Edmonton to see 16 MLAs elected. One election cycle later, in 1993, a tough-talking Laurence Decore wiped the NDP off the electoral map, earning the city its political namesake of “Redmonton”.
One could almost argue that with the steady demise of the Alberta Liberal Party, the NDP was always positioned to take its place but then they had a taste of winning (something the Liberals in Alberta hadn’t accomplished in over a century).
Prior to their surprise win in 2015, the NDP had topped out during their banner years in the 80’s with 217,972 votes province-wide.
The NDP has two options: either expand their support or follow the Liberal’s example and settle in as opposition until another party who can win over the province works its way past them.
Those are the only options.
Walk the walk
After 2015’s “accidental government” — that was really the fault of warring conservatives for not being able to attract enough support for either the moderate or fringe faction to beat the NDs — the NDs ran a strong NDP-based social issues-focused campaign in 2019 that gained them a whopping 15,403 votes and cost them re-election.
Few blamed the NDP for the loss as they were pitted against a newly “united” party whose focus on the economy deftly overshadowed the hateful personal beliefs of a leader whose sole focus was returning Alberta to a land of personal and provincial prosperity.
Too many, however, blamed their fellow Albertans — to the point of emulating that hateful rhetoric they claimed to despise from others.
Lines were drawn in a zero-sum assessment of the worst opinions being attributed to the whole of “the other side”.
Beneficial if you happen to have the edge, electorally-speaking, but less so if you need to attract some of those same people to your side. And no, you can’t just make the effort every few years when there’s an election, and you really cannot rely on a “lend your vote” campaign to make up for the lack of relationship building.
The NDs are a tight group. For decades, a handful of people have been the only ones showing up and “fighting the good fight”.
We’re now two elections from seeing the little party that could, though — it’s become the little party that did and without dedicated succession planning it is destined to be the little party that can’t.
Recent events in Alberta politics tell us that it isn’t inconceivable that those who refuse to make room in the vehicle with a path to the Legislature could find themselves pushed aside in favour of those who will.
And talk the talk
This is not to say that the NDs cannot maintain some of their more strongly-rooted ideologies — they can and should embrace the strengths that differentiate themselves from the libertarian masquerade that is now a governing party.
What the NDs desperately need to do is learn how to communicate those strengths in conservative-eze because that is the mother tongue of a majority of Albertans and if you cannot speak the language, your message is going nowhere.
Part of speaking the language is knowing your audience — it’s not just the words, it’s how your audience internalizes them.
Healthcare was the number one issue on Albertan’s minds before the election, followed by affordability. Talk about second Christmas in April!
It seemed like a gift made especially for the NDP… and they took that gift through the mud to instead make 2023 about Danielle Smith.
Rather than having a clear, three-point message — remember “jobs, economy, pipelines”? — they again went after what made the UCP vulnerable (Smith) instead of what made Albertans vulnerable: a healthcare system being held together with dollar store band-aids.
Giving the spotlight to Danielle Smith had the added disadvantage of allowing her the opportunity to then focus on things Alberta voters like to hear: low taxes, plenty of jobs, and a roaring economy.
The latter of which was, of course, the third most popular issue of concern to Albertans and one which the NDs just didn’t seem ready to tackle.
No one can deny that the NDs made good gains and kept the UCP dancing to any tune they thought could help them.
The Alberta NDP won’t be able to rely on a “lend your vote” campaign again, however, and I think they need to seriously reflect on whether more of the same can actually further their trek into the blue yonder or if they need purposefully reconstruct a new team for 2027.
Blue Monday
There is a general belief — and one I share — that the United Conservative Party would have crushed it with a less Danielle Smith-like leader.
Despite the great come-from-behind story the UCP campaign built afterwards, it doesn’t ring true for those of us who were paying close attention.
First off, the UCP has a head start in Alberta proper simply by having a blue banner and claim to the name “conservative”. In a province that has embraced, with great pride, the moniker “Conservative Heartland”, this is a simple reality — though I also believe it will not remain as reliable as it has been in the past.
Secondly, the UCP won the election relying on its primed fear of the NDP being the cause of a global oil price downturn that saw the hollowing out of Calgary’s downtown core and a lack of jobs in the north. It doesn’t matter that the provincial government doesn’t control the price of oil, or that, a half-century ago, Peter Lougheed fought Ottawa for the sole authority to ensure Alberta’s resources flowed in only one direction.
It also doesn’t matter that the only reason anyone believes the NDP was responsible for the 2014 recession is because the opposition of the day created it in the minds of voters by simple repetition — Pavlov’s conservative, if you will.
Lastly, there was no movement either begun or sustained during the election — the UCP simply didn’t lose as many votes as the NDP gained.
Blue’s Clues
The more in-migration Alberta has, the more likely those people are going to bring a less conservative ideology with them.
Every party is more conservative in Alberta.
I remember talking with a woman from Ontario attending an Alberta Liberal event and she was quite out of sorts because the Alberta Liberals “would be closer to the PC party” there. I imagine she found the Alberta NDP to be a much better fit.
Take Back Alberta, who must be high-fiving themselves silly, will likely follow Jason Kenney’s example and take rage-farming to the point of no return where those who were once willing to hop on the bus realize they can get wherever they want to go without the person who brought them along for the ride.
That will not work in Danielle Smith’s favour because she is also likely to follow Kenney’s example and, in trying to maintain their support, futher alienates moderate conservatives.
There’s just one more piece, but it’s a big one.
After the election, Suncor announced that they would be laying off around 1500 employees. This was most likely due to losing out on the Surmont bid, which was awarded to ConocoPhillips Texas as they had right of first refusal (and was announced on May 26, a few days before the election, because corporations don’t care who wins government).
TC Energy announced layoffs were coming because they want more profit — as above, the same rules apply.
These announcements will probably be inexplicable to some but it will be the beginning of a hard truth sinking in — corporations don’t care who is in government.
That realization will cause some to instead consider which party is willing to actually work for their interests. Who they decide will best do that for them is not known to me at this time but I do not think it will help the UCP.
Win/loss ratio
Despite showing strength, the UCP lost out even though they won government. Despite showing weakness, the NDP gained enough to remain a contender in 2027.
Both have an opportunity to do better next election but my money, at this ridiculously early stage, is going to be on the NDP because they have a positive trajectory even though they did not win government.
The rest, is up to them.