State of the opposition

Both the Conservative Party of Canada and the Alberta NDP opposition are in trouble. Some fixes are easier than others.

New polls haven’t been kind to opposition either federally or in Alberta. For once, they likely have a majority of Albertans shaking their heads because Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are gaining support while Premier Danielle Smith remains in safe majority territory. Following critique of Naheed Nenshi provincially, and a European Vacation by Pierre Poilievre, the opposition remains in the crosshairs of political observers.

The latest shot across the bow was from Shannon Phillips, former Alberta Environment Minister from 2015-2019 and current partner at Meredith Boessenkool & Phillips, and Stephen Carter, President, Decide Campaigns, discussed on the latest Strategists podcast Is the Alberta NDP’s messaging landing?

Betteridge’s Law— any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered “no”— applies.

I want to delve into this idea of “relentless opposition”, as introduced by Ms. Phillips, because it’s a fascinating comparison between both the federal opposition and the provincial in terms of their success both between and in elections. We disagree on whether the state of government plays a role, however.

Ms. Phillips brought up two examples of relentless opposition; the Alberta NDP from 2020-2021 on COVID policies, and Pierre Poilievre during the final two years of Justin Trudeau’s term as Prime Minister. Thinking through both of those scenarios, and how neither of them ultimately resulted in a favourable outcome for the opposition, I came to the conclusion that relentless opposition is only one necessary condition. A successful outcome requires the existence of another two dependent conditions; a weakness within the rival party that can be exploited because of a (real or perceived) strength the other possesses.

In the weeds

In the case of the NDP’s success on COVID policies came not just from the opposition’s consistency but also Premier Jason Kenney’s inconsistency. With the Premier waffling between restrictions and open season in his attempt to placate opposing factions of his “united” party’s caucus and base— a position that was neither supported by the evidence nor a majority of Albertans— Rachel Notley and the NDP were able to break through to that majority because they were on the same side.

I can’t think that would have happened if Premier Kenney had simply allowed Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer of Health (CMOH), Dr. Deena Hinshaw, to take the lead during COVID. Across the country during that time, we all noticed how leaders who took a step back fared much better than Premier Kenney in public opinion polling.

Thinking back on it now, it was a (long) moment when a solid majority of Albertans seemed to be aware that they didn’t want someone cosplaying as an expert when lives were at stake. Yet…

To me, the UCP’s incompetence in managing the crisis was necessary for the opposition to differentiate themselves.

Pierre Poilievre’s breakout as opposition leader came early in his tenure. With the scent of the convoy still in the air in Ottawa, they had roused not just anger at provincial COVID management, but also the carbon tax. Neither the Prime Minister nor the governing Liberal party were responsible for provincial mandates, but they did own the carbon tax as a signature part of their climate plan. Despite the fact that carbon tax policy was a core part of that plan, the federal government fumbled on their communications from the start. So, when they announced a carveout for heating oil in 2022, and long-time Liberal MP Gudie Hutchings followed that up with “they should vote liberal” to be included in carveouts… it wasn’t exactly difficult for Pierre Poilievre to capitalize on that fumble; and he was, undeniably, relentless.

However, I have to look at the fact that neither the Alberta NDP nor Mr. Poilievre were able to form government over it. Granted, both the governing parties changed out their leadership at the eighth and eleventh hours but if it was simply relentless opposition, it shouldn’t have mattered who was at the head of the party. Obviously, though, it did.

The outcomes were also related to changing circumstances, of course. By the time an election was held in Alberta, the pandemic had lost most of its bite and through 2022 a priority was placed on much less government intervention in the daily lives of citizens. Between NDP leader Rachel Notley and UCP leader Danielle Smith, the latter held the advantage. CPC leader Pierre Poilievre, meanwhile, was thwarted by the leader in the U.S. threatening our sovereignty, as well as our economic prosperity, and Mark Carney’s resume lent him the credibility Mr. Poilievre has been unable to reach.

Still treading water

Federally, Mr. Poilievre is on his umpteenth makeover. With the CPC losing popularity, and the Conservative leader losing a third MP, he’s apparently decided to focus on his own image; again. In an effort to appear more statesmanlike, he delivered a speech in Toronto, then headed across the pond to speak to likeminded opposition parties and organizations. He’s been attempting to curb some of his more characteristic antagonism as if in recognition of the fact that he is not personally well-liked, let alone respected, outside of the most loyal members.

It took some time before Canadians turned away from the CPC. Some suggested people were waiting for the outcome of the leadership review, but there’s probably something to be said for the Prime Minister demonstrating returns on his own overseas visits; many of which, so far, were felt in the western provinces. For a part of the Canadian population who felt as if their needs weren’t being met, let alone heard, the rise in support for the Prime Minister has been notable.

It can only further be dampening Mr. Poilievre’s spirit to realize that his strengths followed Justin Trudeau— as in, they were gone as soon as the former Prime Minister was. Mainly, Mr. Poilievre’s apparent strength as a fiscal manager was reliant upon the conservative brand of being trustworthy as a fiscal manager, rather than having any actual experience to offer.

BlueSky

Though it’s entirely possible Mr. Poilievre intends to hang on, hoping for the government to make a catastrophic, or even mild, mistake that may place him in that previously elevated position, there’s also a big question of whether there’s a potential candidate for succession within the party to replace him if he did decide to leave. It’s not entirely unlike what the Alberta NDP may also be facing; though their next challenge will come sooner.

Something old, something new

Voting for the federal NDP leadership race is officially underway with results of the most unnecessarily long leadership race in recent memory expected to be announced after three more weeks in the longest month of the year. I have no idea what those in other provinces are thinking about this race, but it’s been coming up more in Alberta from someone you might not expect: Alberta’s Premier and leader of the province’s last legally named “conservative” party, Danielle Smith. The conservative leader has been name-dropping the perceived frontrunner’s name, Avi Lewis, as often as she can.

He and Alberta have history.

Mr. Lewis was part of the group who led the charge to introduce the LEAP manifesto at the federal NDP convention, which was hosted by Rachel Notley’s NDP in Alberta in April of 2016. It was just shy of the provincial party’s first anniversary as government after a surprise victory ended 44 years of Progressive Conservative rule. It was also the moment that the opposition discovered the provincial party’s greatest weakness was their federal ties.

From the pithy firebrand Jack Layton, whose leadership brought the federal party to Official Opposition status in 2011, to Tom Mulcair, who ran an exceptional campaign that would have capitalized perfectly on the orange-blue shift— had Canadians not been looking to rid themselves of the more conservative Stephen Harper in 2015— the federal party had been less of a liability until that moment. Also because the NDP had never formed government in the “conservative heartland” of Alberta before. Afterwards? Well, let’s just say that the opposition to an NDP government in Alberta became “relentless”.

The Alberta NDP has been glacially slow to acknowledge the fact that this was seen as their greatest weakness, even though the federal party was responsible for all but one of the major hurdles Rachel Notley had to jump over throughout her tenure as Premier and until she stepped down as leader. It is a weakness that has been identified by both foe and friend to the Alberta NDP before, and it is one that some refuse to acknowledge to this day.

The federal party has been an albatross around the provincial party’s neck for a full decade this year; unhappy anniversary.

On the off chance anyone isn’t entirely convinced, I have receipts.

The LEAP manifesto was the first; BC NDP leader John Horgan’s promise to the third party Greens— who held the balance of power after that province’s election in 2017— to oppose the Trans Mountain Expansion in order to get their support to form government was second, and; federal leader Jagmeet Singh— who apparently couldn’t be bothered to keep up with what his provincial counterparts were doing in April of 2023— released his anti-oil policy proposals in the middle of the Alberta election, which required Rachel Notley to release a statement saying she did not agree with her federal counterpart.

Last week (and this) it’s Danielle Smith saying that Naheed Nenshi should be making calls to his BC counterpart and the potential winner of federal party’s leadership to get them “to stop blocking pipelines”. Even Rachel Notley couldn’t move the dials with her provincial and federal counterparts and few have more NDP cred than she.

The federal NDP is to the Alberta NDP what the carbon tax was to Justin Trudeau.

The CPC can just get a new leader; the Alberta NDP needs more than a new face.

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