"They earned it": waiting for the leader

Political leaders who overcome the odds get to decide when they're ready to leave; sort of.

CPC leader Pierre Poilievre, flanked by MP Melissa Lantsman because Mr. Poilievre cannot be in the halls alone as an unelected.

When Conservative Party of Canada leader Stephen Harper failed to win the 2004 election, he was, reportedly, ready to give up. His team had to do a lot of cajoling to get him to stay on; a decision that did pay off but almost didn’t happen. After he lost the 2015 election, everyone knew he would step down but the timing of that, I was told, was his to decide because he had achieved something no one thought possible — led the Reformers to the seat of government.

Mr. Harper resigned his leadership shortly after losing to Justin Trudeau in 2015 but held his seat for another ten months out of principle, he said then. He — and many Albertans — disagreed with former Alberta Premier Jim Prentice’s decision to vacate the seat he had just won on election night in May that same year after losing his own government. To be fair to Mr. Prentice, he was wearing a much greater loss at the time than Mr. Harper. Federally, conservatives win and liberals win. It’s not so simple in Alberta.

Rachel Notley, who led the third place Alberta New Democrats to a wild upset in 2015 that took down the 44-year dynasty of the Progressive Conservatives, stayed on as leader after losing the 2019 election; and no one in the ABNDP batted an eye. Even after losing that election to Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives, Ms. Notley received over 90 per cent support for her leadership at the party’s annual general meeting.

Ms. Notley not only retained support from her own party, but from Albertans generally. The number of votes the party received in 2019 remained almost unchanged from 2015, with an increase of just three per cent, or 15,000 votes. Mr. Kenney, meanwhile, increased the united party’s by around 25 per cent from the pre-unity total, or 266,442 votes.

Still, those who voted NDP in Alberta didn’t hold Rachel Notley responsible for the party’s loss. As I noted earlier this week, she remained more popular than her party and through her decision to remain leader enjoyed another Alberta first as the only party leader in the province’s history to stay on to fight another election after losing government.

While I’d argue that the unwavering support for her leadership had more to do with her decision to remain leader, the rule of thumb was that as the first NDP leader to ever form government in Alberta, the decision was hers, and hers alone, to stay — she would not face a challenge if she chose to do so.

Pierre Poilievre certainly looks like he’s trying to make the same case for himself.

Overstaying your welcome

Despite the fact that Rachel Notley’s NDP saw a 25 per cent increase in the 2023 election, increasing their overall vote by 157,483 and holding the UCP to the smallest majority in the province’s history, there was little doubt she would step down after a second election loss.

Ms. Notley’s opposition NDP had enjoyed a bump in support during a particularly difficult period for the UCP under Jason Kenney and looked as if their electoral fortunes might change in the 2023 election. Had Jason Kenney remained leader of the party, it might have indeed changed the party’s fortunes; much like the CPC may have coasted to a win in 2025 had Justin Trudeau remained leader.

Rachel Notley’s personal popularity still outshone that of her party, however, while Pierre Poilievre’s is middling at best. As the province reflexively votes conservative at the best of times, I’m not going to say Alberta is a bellwether for the rest of the country generally, but when we’re talking about support for a conservative party leader, to not be clearly in the lead is one thing; to be one percentage point behind a Liberal leader in strong to leaning approval is something I cannot help but view as a portent of trouble ahead.

Before Mark Carney even won the Liberal leadership race, I was hearing people refer to him as a “PC”. Okay; it was just my mom, but I could see how she got there and knew that it was likely how others would view him as well. Reading a slightly jarring piece by Andrew Philips in the Toronto Star this week added some weight to the sentiment. By the bye, it wasn’t jarring because it referred to the Carney-led Liberals as “our new conservative government”, it was because I feel like it was supposed to be ironic at best, if not at least satirical, and it failed miserably at both for me.

The fact that the new Prime Minister is seen to be a full-fledged shift from the “NDP-Liberal Alliance”, as it’s referred to in Alberta, does not bode well for Pierre Poilievre.

Face-eating leopard party

The biggest difference for Pierre Poilievre is that while he may have a close circle of die-hard supporters encouraging him to stay on and try again, as Stephen Harper did after his first loss in 2004, Mr. Poilievre is not leading a “new” party, and he is not a “new” leader. While I initially waived off the idea that Mr. Poilievre would face a challenge to his leadership after losing a 25-point lead, and failing to pivot his campaign, and losing his own seat, Mr. Poilievre leads a party that is not known to be very forgiving of leaders who lose elections.

Jagmeet Singh had to lose support over three elections, and his seat, before he succumbed to pressure to step down, and Justin Trudeau was given a year and a half with continuously rising disapproval numbers before his party came for him.

In contrast, the PCs came for Andrew Scheer within two months of the 2019 election loss, and the Reformers came for Erin O’Toole within four months of the 2021 election loss.

While it may initially seem like a good thing if the knives aren’t out for Mr. Poilievre, ironically, a lack of interest in coming after his leadership could be indicative of a different, and more difficult problem to overcome.

Although the conservative merger was between “Progressive” Conservatives and Alliance, Christian Heritage, Reform, or whatever they were calling themselves that day, Mr. Harper claimed that centrists, or centre-left leaning people didn’t belong in a “Conservative” party. Not all PC-voting Canadians got the message, of course, and some still refer to the Conservative Party of Canada as the PC’s, but the point of demolishing the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada was to remove the option for “small ‘c’” conservatives. So long as the Liberal Party was outflanking the NDP to its left, the CPC could count on their support — what they didn’t expect was a bona fide Blue Liberal to take the helm.

If the Progressive Conservatives are willing to leave Mr. Poilievre be because they accept that he built up the party’s support, he can rest easy. However, if they’re leaving him alone because they are content with Prime Minister Carney’s shift toward conservative policy, Mr. Poilievre risks losing the other half of his party’s base. Unfortunately, it may be difficult to tell which is which until after another election, which I fully expect will be the result of Mr. Poilievre’s political machinations, but it’s a tad early for that post.

Will they or won’t they?

It is still early days. I would love to believe that the CPC is willing, as they’ve claimed, to work for the best interests of Canadians. They’ve also noted that the Prime Minister is intent on adopting a number of conservative proposals which should, one would think, easily garner support from the CPC caucus.

However, politicians love to play politics — especially when they can keep a minority government on edge. Stephen Harper, with the help of the NDP and the Bloc, took down Paul Martin’s Liberal minority in 2005. Mr. Harper had to prorogue parliament in 2007, again in 2008 after the early election elicited another, but stronger minority government, and a third time in 2009. Mr. Trudeau prorogued parliament after announcing his resignation as Liberal party leader in 2025.

No one expects Mr. Poilievre to spend time campaigning in a riding over 3,000 km from his home, and no one expects he would have to. If you can’t win a riding you’ve represented for 20 years, the next best “sure thing” is definitely rural Alberta. Getting back into the house is the least of his worries now.

I don’t think there’s any way he’s nearly as confident about the security of his position as he seems in front of the press. After all, he led his own coup without the last party leader finding out. That alone would haunt a person when they’re thinking about who they have and haven’t heard from over the weekend.

Carefully strategizing the fine line between keeping people in the loop and getting clingy, I imagine there’s a close group of five or six MPs making calls every other day with some “need to know” update to check in with caucus. For Mr. Poilievre, I bet the hours crawl by every day and his stomach sinks every time a new poll comes out.

It isn’t like any of the six elections he’d been through before where he was just a returning Member of Parliament — this time, he’s a returning leader who lost an election. The CPC won the popular vote under Andrew Scheer in 2019, and gained more 20 more seats but he couldn’t hang onto the leadership. Erin O’Toole also won the popular vote but the party did lose two seats, so…

How long before Mr. Poilievre can relax? Is it two months like Andrew Scheer? When did he start organizing against Mr. O’Toole, I wonder? Was it months before he made his move or weeks? Will he breathe easier after the four months or will it take six?

I know for a fact people rallied around Stephen Harper after he lost the 2004 election. I know that there’s an unwritten rule that when a leader helps the party get closer to winning, they can be afforded a second chance. I also know far too many conservative politicians are just waiting to push the other guy out of the way to get their turn.

Whether plotting his next political play or trying to remain confident that he will lead his party into the next election, I would guess Pierre Poilievre isn’t sleeping well these days and maybe won’t for a while yet.

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