This week in AB: December 20, 2024
Hard to believe we fit that all into four days...
NDP wins Lethbridge-West by-election
Status quo?
Unofficial results are similar to the 2023 general election with the ABNDP at 53.4 per cent (7,239)
UCP sees 2.4 per cent increase to 44.9 per cent (6,089)
Alberta Party trailed with 233 votes
Takeaways
With an NDP win, leader Naheed Nenshi can breathe a sigh of relief, and the UCP can carry on as if the result didn’t really matter to them. The narrative would have been much darker had the UCP won.
What’s next
Nenshi is likely to run in Rachel Notley’s riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, as the former NDP leader indicated she will vacate her seat as of December 30, 2024. The UCP is trying to suggest that Nenshi should ask a sitting caucus member to step down for him to take a seat, as both the current and former leader of the UCP did, but there’s no advantage to Nenshi choosing to get rid of a Calgary MLA.
While there were no vacant ridings for Jason Kenney at the time, requiring the resignation of Dave Rodney, there was a vacant seat when Danielle Smith won the UCP leadership: Calgary-Elbow.
Smith, whose home riding is Livingstone-MacLeod, was not offered the seat after she won the leadership race in 2022, and likely had some influence over the Take Back Alberta organization that showed up to support now-MLA Chelsea Petrovic in the nomination race which the incumbent MLA, Roger Reid, initially contested.
Instead, Smith accepted the resignation of Michaela Frey of Brooks-Medicine Hat, which provided a greater opportunity to quash any momentum that might be at risk of bubbling up under Brooks-Medicine Hat native Barry Morishita, who had taken over leadership of the Alberta Party.
While Nenshi could ask a Calgary caucus member to resign their seat, there’s less for him to gain by doing so, especially when it’s a poorly-kept secret that Rachel Notley would like to move on. Assisting in the Lethbridge-West by-election, and taking time to work on internal party business, was best attended to while Nenshi was not yet an elected member.
Notley provided that time and whenever Danielle Smith gets around to feeling like the UCP can waive off a second by-election loss to Naheed Nenshi and the ABNDP, she’ll open the race. Winning the narrative game matters, too.
Budget Consultation
I like surveys; data makes decision-making easier, and if they’re poorly constructed, they can tell you so much more about the data they want to collect.
“Please rate how familiar or unfamiliar you are with each of the following issues that are putting pressure on the provincial government’s finances”
on a scale of 1 to 15, choose which public services are most important to you
Feel the frustration when you realize that “acute/hospital care” is separate from “healthcare”, but also how ludicrous it is that the Government of Oil and Gas wants to know where you rank “diversify the economy” so they can get permission to poach workers from overseas
Let the fact that “Recovery costs from ‘natural’ disasters (wildfires, drought, floods, etc)” is included as an option under the question “To what extent do the following things affect your personal or household budget?” sink in.
Really let it marinate
And don’t forget that insurance is increasing as much as 7.5 per cent next year as the province begins a two-year transition from holding insurance companies responsible for the fault of drivers to a “no sue model” of insurance
Takeaways
Spoiler alert: we should prepare ourselves for a less than stellar budget.
When the government asks you to pick which public services you want them to prioritize funding, it’s never a good sign.
What’s next
We should see some targeted messaging around the things the government wants you to know are not their fault based on the “how familiar are you with” question.
inflation: do you know it’s higher in Alberta than any other province, or can we still blame Trudeau?
mass migration: do you remember that we launched a national campaign to get people to move here, or can we blame Trudeau’s immigration policies?
unions: amirite?
oil prices: what is a province who has been through boom spending and bust tightening cycles for half a century but still wants to brag about being the lowest taxed jurisdiction in the country to do?
Despite that one question asking what we should do with a surplus, I wouldn’t get my hopes up. By the time they release Budget 2025, we’ll be trying to figure out how to manage under Donald Trump’s tariffs and looking at a pretty bleak year ahead.
Canada
Chrystia Freeland resigns in a blaze of glory
It’s been said that Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland was the heir apparent for the Liberal leadership, and the leader of Canada and that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has sought to afford her opportunities so that she could easily step into the role at some point in the future.
What a Monday!
The pundit classes were glued to their screens for three plus hours in the morning after now-former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland delivered an incredible Dear John letter to the Prime Minister.
Takeaways
Alberta at noon, Monday, December 15 with Corey Hogan and Janet Brown (with a quick call-in from yours truly)
The Strategists, Monday, December 15 with Stephen Carter, Corey Hogan, and Zain Velji
Curse of Politics, The Herle Burly Panel, Tuesday December 16 with David Herle, Scott Reid, Jordan Leichnitz and Kory Teneycke
What’s next
Will we see any more movement on the federal scene over the next couple of weeks? The Liberal caucus is tight-lipped, polling is looking even worse than it has for the last year, Pierre Poilievre is ready for an election, Jagmeet Singh is ready for nothing, and Trudeau?? That’s who we’re all waiting to hear from.
Canada-U.S. deflations
The threat of Trump’s tariffs are looming, Danielle Smith is tripping over herself to lick his boots, Doug Ford is standing strong on retaliation, the Liberals are making news for all the wrong reasons, and Trump can’t stop thinking about making America bigger.
While Trump’s latest fixation on Canada as “the 51st State” is annoying at best, it’s seriously detrimental to our negotiating position at worst which is concerning as we get closer to the implementation of his tariffs and the need to begin negotiating with whatever we have left.
Why Canada should be worried about Trump’s 51st state “joke”
(This article was originally pitched to a newspaper outlet December 9, 2024 and has been updated slightly.)
The good news is that the 51st state conversation is a non-starter; Trump just has something shiny that gets him a lot of media attention.
The bad news is that Trump is a bully; he sees a weakness (Canada’s reliance on trade with America, much of the Canadian public’s general revulsion at being seen as a willing partner in his delusions of grandeur) and he’s exploiting that.
There are plenty of Danielle Smith types clamouring for his attention, as well as that of his MAGA following, however, who will continue to feel enabled by it, which doesn’t help their opposition leader in Ottawa who would, if an election were held anytime soon, find himself the target in Trump’s crosshairs.
Takeaways
the cross-border political pollination is not good for Canadian leadership no matter which colour banner they represent; we may a share a border but we are separate, and sovereign, countries — it was true when they were flying U.S. and Trump flags at their convoy occupation, and it is still true today
CBC News Network, Wednesday December 18
What’s next
It’s all up to the Prime Minister and he seems to still be thinking about it. We’re all on the edge of our seats.
Note to readers: barring something extraordinary happening over the next five days, I probably won’t have much to add over Christmas week. With that in mind, thank you for reading, sharing, and your support — and a little extra shout out to all of the paid subscribers who said “thanks” back :) it means a lot! Merry Christmas!!