This week in AB: November 8, 2024
Marked "safe" from the party membership last weekend, Danielle Smith sets her sights on bigger, less accountable government.
Danielle Smith walked away from her party’s AGM with a solid 91% support from the membership in attendance on Saturday.
Takeaways
it’s one less thing she has to worry about; a full third of the constituency associations would have to band together and call a special meeting to force a vote on it again before the next election. It can be done, though; that’s how they got Jason Kenney.
membership was given an inch; now they want a mile:
What’s next
Smith has been here before as leader of the Wildrose. She knows they won’t stop demanding more legislated hate against their neighbours, and more separation from the rest of Canada.
She may make it to the next election, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if she picked up her beach ball and went home to Panama early.
Smith says she will invoke the Sovereignty Within a “United” Canada Act against the Liberal’s proposed emissions cap.
Takeaways
the first test of “My Bedroom Rules” is upon us. None of my kids had (needed?) this but it was absolutely a thing when I was a teenager trying to assert some independence in a house where my parents made all the rules.
Smith noted that without continually increasing production (royalties), Albertans would have to pay for their services.
What’s next
time is on the UCP’s side; the federal government will be obligated to challenge Alberta’s use of the Sovereignty Act, but with less than a year until the next election — and near certainty Poilievre and the CPC will form government when the time comes — they may be able to look tough without having to worry about receiving an embarrassing decision before Poilievre wins and repeals all climate policy, after which the UCP can file for a discontinuance.
it’s a gamble that could pay off and leave the (more than likely) useless legislation around to keep fooling its blissfully ignorant supporters that it’s actually worth as much as the paper it’s printed on.
Bill 31: the Make Government Bigger Act
Alberta saw some additional 200,000 new residents over the past couple of years and will need two more MLAs to handle their representation
introducing data and information sharing legislation where no data or information sharing agreement currently exists
applicable to any department, branch, or agency of the Government of Alberta, municipal governments, and regional, municipal, or independent agency police services
Takeaways
there are nine ridings currently over population, three held by UCP and six by NDP
Airdrie-Cochrane
Calgary-Buffalo
Calgary-Foothills
Calgary-North East
Calgary-Shaw
Calgary-South East
Edmonton-Ellerslie
Edmonton-South
Edmonton-South West
it’s a chance to kick the decision to the commission, which could reasonably suggest adding nine seats when the “fiscally conservative” government only asked for two
it seems unlikely that the governing party would willingly increase seats in urban given their loss of Edmonton and fight over Calgary last election, however, there is potential to extend the north Calgary and south Edmonton ridings further into rural, creating a potential advantage for the UCP. I’d bank on the latter.
Information sharing is a good thing, except that three bills from now, the UCP puts the shields up on granting the public access to “political communications”.
What’s next
more government, less transparency, apparently.
Bill 32: the Financial Statutes Amendment Act
What it entails
introducing alternative finance mortgages, including Halal financing
amendments to the credit union act and Alberta Treasury Branches (ATB) act allowing them to charge “profit” or “rent” rather than interest, as paying or receiving interest is forbidden by Islamic law
major banks will be under no obligation to offer Halal financing
standardizing index formulas for Alberta programs
either to the default of 2% or consumer price index (CPI), whichever is lower
electric vehicle tax
$200/year, upon registration, equal to what combustion vehicles pay in fuel tax
government vehicles will be exempt
allowing parents who lose a child to receive the Alberta Child and Family Benefit for an additional six months after a child passes away
minor technical tax amendments that could include the UCP’s promise to present a blanket tax break for all Albertans; Cabinet has not discussed this with regard to the potential deficit caused by decreased oil prices
Takeaways
the Alberta government is preparing for a potential revenue shortfall this year as oil prices dropped $8.50/barrel below their budget price.
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe has previously noted that “each dollar-per-barrel drop in oil prices costs Alberta's budget $800,000 to $900,000 per day”. And there were eight of them.
What’s next
increased taxes you will feel, but not see, and cutting our way to prosperity; if I had to make an educated guess.
Bill 34: “Shields up” on FOIPing political decision-making
UCP proposes new rules to legally withhold ‘political’ discussions from the public
paper records amongst elected officials, including those of their partisan staff members will be protected from public scrutiny
Takeaways
applying the lens of “how would this look if the opposition wanted this while in government”, I feel confident those in support of the governing party would be livid at the suggestion. Therefore, I’m equally confident in saying this is not good legislation.
I’m almost as confident in saying that there would be a real possibility a new government would not be too hurried in repealing such legislation, which I am very confident would not go over well with those currently representing and supporting the current government. I repeat, if that is true, this is not good legislation.
What’s next
hopefully a solid wall of persistent questioning from the opposition on whether it would be appropriate for an NDP government to propose this legislation.
UCP fires AIMCo board
facing increased costs and staff, combined with less in-house management and lower return for the work AIMCo has been doing, the UCP has finally decided to replace the board of directors the UCP has put in place since 2020, including rescinding appointments made as recently as March of this year.
Takeaways
Albertans are concerned about AIMCo’s performance, creating a mountain of difficulty in persuading them to vote to remove their pension funds from the Canada Pension Plan. Smith has not hidden her intention to get our retirement funds under the province’s control, though she has been substantially muted on the topic since the writ dropped in 2023, due to its unpopularity. With confidence levels continuing to wane in AIMCo’s ability to manage the funds properly, let alone as well as the CPPIB continuously does, the UCP had no choice but to try and get more from their appointees.
What’s next
the UCP has yet to find success through appointing provincial party donors, but I don’t think they’re quite to the point where they will open it up entirely to qualifications-focused appointments. My expectations are low for a government that eschews education and career expertise, but it’s one of those rare times where I would prefer to be proven wrong.
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Great summary.