We need to talk about Ottawa

Spoiler! It's about the leadership race.

Those of us whose lives revolve around the daily news cycle have been through the wringer over the past few weeks. Worse, many who would rather not have been were dragged along for the ride.

Between the chilling effect of a rogue premier breaking ranks publicly for her own benefit, and setting herself up as lone arbiter among the Republican classes, and the inauguration of a President who has been credibly hostile to the personal economic prosperity of every Canadian… it hasn’t been the most relaxing week for many.

Aside from all of that, there’s actually something else going on that may not be directly in our faces at this moment, but underlies some of the unease we are feeling; a race to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the Liberal leader.

For the record, when the Liberals gave a carbon tax carve out to heating oil in the fall of 2023, I thought the Prime Minister should start making plans for a graceful exit. I thought he definitely would have, if not simply should have, triggered a leadership race in 2024. After Christmas 2024, I accepted that he was not willing to do either of these things because, as he claimed, he wanted to lead the party into the next election.

If that were true, then, I believed he should bite the bullet and call an election.

Instead, on January 6, 2025, he finally opted for a leadership race, and with his resignation came a sigh of relief from around 80 per cent of Canadians.

Initial polls are also showing at least an interest in returning support as the candidates made their announcements last week.

The candidates, probably

The Liberal Party announced the race would be held over a brief six-week period, with a deadline for leadership packages, and $50,000 deposit today, January 23, at 5 PM EDT.

Candidates still need to be approved by the party’s Leadership Election Committee, which will likely take place next week, as the membership deadline to vote for leader, January 27, swiftly approaches.

While there are currently six candidates, I expect only three are making it to a leadership debate, and of those, one may be a dark horse.

Much of the conversation is centering around former Finance Minister and Deputy Premier (and more) Chrystia Freeland, former Bank of Canada Governor (and more) Mark Carney, and former Minister of three portfolios and, most recently, Liberal House Leader, Karina Gould.

Chrystia Freeland was once seen as the heir apparent to Justin Trudeau’s leadership (unless you listen to a certain political podcast where Mark Carney’s name has been thrown around for years), but some of the Prime Minister’s tribulations may be incredibly difficult to cast off, even if she was the person to deliver the final blow.

From Peace River, Alberta, Freeland’s hometown connections haven’t been central to her identity in Ontario. Some shade has also been thrown at her for being an MP in Ontario but I’ll point out that Alberta has plenty of qualified people who, as Liberals, would never be given a chance to go to Ottawa from the “Conservative Heartland”. What they should be asking themselves is why a kid from Calgary, who has been a proud Reformer and anti-establishment conservative since his early teens, chose to make Ottawa-Carlton his home.

Which brings us to the next candidate, also from Alberta, Mark Carney. He’s an interesting candidate at any time but even more so right now. With his economic background, and his history in helping Canada avoid most of the fallout from the 2007-08 financial crisis, in addition to his ultimately accurate assessment that Brexit would be a bad financial risk for the United Kingdom, Mark Carney has the experience, and credibility, to lend Canadians some much-needed confidence in the face of threats from a protectionist and hostile American president.

Meeting that hostility solely with appeasement, or retaliatory measures, has been unpopular. Few, aside from Mr. Carney, are talking about an action plan that Canada, and Canadians, can have full autonomy over. Yet, it isn’t just autonomy that Canadians want, they want a future that looks more hopeful than simply accepting what Donald Trump has threatened to do to us.

The third candidate, Karina Gould, could offer a lot in this moment. Prior to becoming an elected official, Ms. Gould — whose post-graduate studies were in international relations — spent time in D.C., as well as working on trade relations.

One of the benefits of a leadership race is that candidates seek to carve out a space for themselves with ideas that may otherwise not be heard. When such a race is taking place during a time when trade and international relations are a daily topic of interest, there should be an openness to listening.

In fairness, there was almost as long a list of candidates who announced they were not running for the position; candidates who may have been interested if the race was not shortened by necessity, under the layer of current events, and eyeing the most likely possibility of losing confidence of the House on day one, and heading into an election they were almost certain to lose.

“almost certain”

With that being said, there are changes afoot.

As Donald Trump continues to threaten Canadians’ livelihoods with “economic pressure” and more attention is given to the instability his refusal to honour our trade agreements would cause, what once looked like a mostly inconsequential federal election ahead is suddenly anything but.

Where Canadians have been in the privileged position of weighing policy promises and chiming in with, or tuning out, the loudest voices, we are facing something far more important: our future. Not just personally, nor even geographically, but our future as Canadians under constant economic threat from a foreign leader, and — however absurdly it began — our future as a sovereign nation.

The ballot box question has changed.

Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre has, for the past two years, been trying to set that question on the carbon tax. Against an unpopular leader and somewhat high inflation (though much lower than other countries), a “carbon tax election” seemed to be accepted by the broader public.

However, each Liberal leadership candidate has said they would also “axe the tax”, rendering the most popular slogan of Mr. Poilievre’s long-running pre-election campaign moot.

Not that it’s stopped him and his team from trying to keep it going by adding “carbon tax” to each candidate’s names that also begin with a short c sound.

It’s playground politics at a time when Canadians are looking for a responsible adult to deal with the very real threats to their livelihoods, and their futures, that the American president has been making for months.

As those threats loom ever present, while the president toys with the country’s investment and economic certainty, there’s a distinct possibility that Canadians will think twice about their previous inclination to hand the responsibility to master rhyme time.

Bring on the memes because I’m telling you that, against all odds, I think the Liberal Party under new leadership, just might have a chance — which is far more than they had three weeks ago.

Women of ABpoli is a reader-powered publication. Thanks to everyone who reads, shares, and becomes a free subscriber. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber to keep this content available for everyone.