Women of ABpoli Hot Flashes: Into the Fire
This Week in AB
UCP Leadership race update
Something positive!
At the Strathmore Stampede on July 31, UCP leadership candidate Leela Aheer did something wild; she jumped into the pen after a young man was tossed and got stuck under a bull... AND TRIED TO PUSH THE BULL OFF.
She and another were successful in getting the bull to move back and Aheer pulled up the young man before they both got out of the way.
It's an incredible video.
Notley's acknowledgement provided a throwback to a more civil time in Alberta politics when one could admit something good came from a member across the aisle without being called a fascist, communist, or whatever the popularly parroted insult may be.
There's about to be a vacant seat in Calgary Elbow... and it might be awkward
Every candidate vying for the leadership of the UCP has a seat except one: Danielle Smith.
So, when Jobs, Economy, and Pipelines -- whoops, I mean "Innovation" -- Minister Doug Schweitzer announced on Aug. 5 that he had resigned from Cabinet and would leave his role as MLA of Calgary-Elbow at the end of the month, it created the open space an unelected leader would need to get into the Legislature quickly.
Unfortunately, it's probably not the one that would be the most open to a "freemen of the land"-style campaign like what Smith is currently running.
Where there's money, there's usually a stronger affinity to convention -- and Calgary-Elbow has a lot of money.
It's also a good thing they have money because candidates (two or three contenders for sure) will have to fund two campaigns within the next eight months.
Calgary-Elbow has a history for party leaders; it's the former seat of Progressive Conservative leader Ralph Klein, Alison Redford, and Alberta Party leader Greg Clark.
In 2019, Clark lost his seat to Schweitzer with 30.5 per cent of the vote to Schweitzer's 44.3, while Janet Eremenko, the NDP candidate, amassed 23.5 per cent. In 2015, by comparison, Clark saw 42.2 per cent, the PC's received 30.1 per cent, NDP with 15.8 per cent, and the Wildrose saw a whopping 8.7.
The UCP can get away with little or unknown leadership disguising its lurch to the right, but it's not so easy when you have a well-known former Wildrose leader with Smith's rhetoric claiming to represent mainstream conservatism.
I don't know if Smith would actually risk running there, open seat or not. My instinct says it would be a bad idea, but I don't believe Smith possesses that level of self-awareness.
One of the reasons I've continued to follow her descent/ascent is because she is completely baffled why all conservatives don't think the way she does and it's fascinating to listen to her acknowledge this but have no real interest in understanding how she's so far removed.
The open seat question, then, offers an opportunity for a bellwether by-election result and who won't be on the edge of their seat for that?? I hope there are hundreds of people planning to sign up to knock doors because that's how the real work gets done.
As an added bonus you may or may not be forced to buy a membership to participate (!!).
Your candidate of choice will need help so donate whatever you can in energy and/or money -- directly to their campaign -- when the time comes.
Rajan Sawhney loses campaign co-chair Angela Pitt to principles (or political opportunism)
In a recent poll commissioned by Danielle Smith's team to gauge UCP member's (not all Albertans) support for Danielle Smith's platform, Danielle Smith is positioned to win the leadership with 51.4 per cent on the fourth ballot.
If that number sounds at all familiar, it's because Jason Kenney received 51.4 per cent support in his leadership review and resigned, despite saying he would honour the membership's decision (lol), and that he would stay on with any level of support over 50 plus one per cent (eye roll). But I digress.
Angela Pitt as Rajan Sawhney's campaign co-chair seemed like strange bedfellows from the very start. However, with "unity" being a main ballot question, politically speaking, it probably seemed like a decent idea for Sawhney's campaign to seek at least the implication of being able to work with the "screw experts -- you have internet and you're just as qualified as anyone who spent years getting the education and experience" faction of the UCP caucus.
That is of course, until you remember that there is a candidate saying exactly what Pitt has been for the past two years.
The worst part of Pitt's resignation speech, for Sawhney's campaign, was the "time for me to step back into alignment with my constituents and my values" and basically saying she couldn't support a caucus mate while doing that.
Yeesh. However, Pitt could just be hedging her bet on who she perceives will be the next leader.
Former Wildrose leader Smith looks poised to win and Pitt, as a former Wildrose opposition MLA, knows who is willing to put the butter on her bread; it isn't Sawhney's brand of moderate conservativism.
According to Smith's internal poll, she leads on the first ballot with 41 per cent of the vote and Toews is in second place at 20 per cent. Brian Jean, ever misguided in his level of widespread support, rounds out the top three with 10 per cent.
According to the poll seeking input from people who support Smith over establishment or convention, "none of the above" ranks higher than Sawhney and Aheer.
Ouch.
Remember, you can spoil any ballot in protest simply by marking it in a way that is different than what is required. You can put a big old "X" over all of the candidate names or you can write a message over the candidate ranking options - it's your ballot, your chance to use your voice however you please-- in every election.
Back to the poll; these numbers can do one of two things: they can discourage others from voting because Smith looks like she has it in the bag, or; they can galvanize people who don't want to see the UCP swallowed whole by the Wildrose just in case it affects their chances of winning in 2023 (or because they never wanted a Wildrose government in the first place).
The clock is ticking on membership availability: 127 hours and 29 minutes-ish until Friday, August 12 at 11:59PM.
There is real fear in Alberta over who might be the next premier, as well as who might form the next government (and the sentiment is widely shared, though not for the same reasons).
On the one hand, there is an organized movement to fully lean into an anti-Canada, anti-rule of law, anti-reason candidate for Premier.
There are also a surprising number of people who claim to know this would be very bad but are rooting for it all the same because they believe it will ensure the election of a government they'd rather have in 2023.
On the other hand, there were a few people saying the risk outweighs the potential rewards and doing something (ie; buying a membership and voting for someone else) would be better than simply hoping other people did the "not as bad" thing.
There wasn't too much attention being paid to this until someone got the bright idea to encourage those with much bigger platforms to discourage people from participating.
The result of which is colloquially known as the "Barbra Streisand effect". The term is used to describe how trying to suppress or censor something can lead to the unintended consequence of drawing more attention and awareness to the thing you didn't want people seeing/sharing/talking about.
Just to be clear, neither of these groups were targeting party loyalists - one was targeting people who didn't realize they had the option, and the other was targeting people who might pay to join their party and attempting to scare them with what a political party might do with their data. Sorry, not their political party, just the other political party.
Obvs.
Hair left to burn: Dr. Hinshaw receives $228,000 bonus in 2021
Most people can agree that Chief Medical Officers of Health (CMOH) had a pretty rough couple of years - especially when you have to go out of your way to ignore the effects of a pandemic on the health system, healthcare professionals, education, families, businesses, and so much more.
Yeah, that's the side I'm comfortably sitting on.
All CMOH's had a rough couple of years, yet Dr. Hinshaw was the only one to receive a bonus of almost two-thirds of her annual salary.
If only we could get a fair deal from Ottawa, Kenney and Toews could have doubled it, ostensibly.
Speaking of Alberta health...
“Any #ucpldr candidates planning to do anything about this?”
Hallway medicine, if you can get it, doesn't really seem like a win unless you want to get support for more health care privatization and Albertans dying due to a lack of resources bolsters your cause, of course.
Speaking of a lack of resources...
As I mentioned last week, defence lawyer associations in the province were meeting to decide what, if any, action would be taken in response to the silent treatment from Justice Minister Tyler Shandro regarding wages for representation for assistance through the province's Legal Aid program.
Defence lawyers voted to refuse files requiring bail counsel and other specific services for the next two weeks.
Leadership candidate Leela Aheer sent out a scathing indictment of the $28.7 million dollar reduction in funding from the approved budget including:
$5 million for expenses related to the Coutts border blockade
$5 million cost overrun for implementing a new(er??) version of Microsoft Office
$1.6 million in consultation costs for the Alberta Provincial Police Transition Study
Gawd, and speaking of the Alberta Provincial Police Force...
These consultations and research projects have been basically ongoing for the past 30 years (I spoke with Dr. Melanee Thomas, Doug Griffiths, and Dr. Herb Emery about this in 2020 if you'd like a history lesson from people who have done the work) and they've never found a way to make it less expensive -- until NOW!
The UCP says now is the time to get your provincial police force at discounted rates! That's right, they've slashed their prices for the first time ever to make a provincial police force affordable for everyone!!
No one believes that... I don't think.
Canada
Canadian Blood Services desperate for donations after dropping mask mandates
People who donate blood would probably be more community-minded than people who believe their liberties are under attack for being asked to help stop the spread of a communicable disease.
In any case, Canadian Blood Services announced that it was removing its masking policy for donors and now they're seeing people cancel appointments.
Hmmmm. If only we could connect the dots...
The right wing is pissed and they're doing something
We'll see who the membership of the CPC chose as their next leader on September 10. While it's still at least three years away from the next federal election, these supporters have been organizing since 2019 -- yes, two elections ago.
In 2017, Scott Gilmore (Catherin McKenna's husband, journalist, PC organizer etc) went on a cross-Canada tour asking people if it was time to get out of the unholy alliance with Canadian Reform/Alliance Parties.
I attended one of the events in Calgary and a friend of mine attended one in Edmonton. Both of the events received a lukewarm response to building a new federal party.
Since absolutely nothing happened after that, I expect the reaction was similar across the country.
After the federal CPC began their recent leadership race in February 2022, another group has since popped up called "Centre Ice Conservatives". Weird, hockey-laden reference aside, they may be reading the room (pre-Hockey Canada sexual assault payoff fund) and that room is full of anti-Canada, anti-rule of law, anti-reason support (sound familiar?).
Once again, conservatives are seeking an audience with people who would like to potentially form government and not be an unmitigated disaster.
I'm attending their full-day panel in Edmonton on August 11 to see what Plan B looks like after Poilievre wins the leadership race -- whoops, I mean... nah, that's exactly the problem.