Alberta Republican Party: real entity or Kamikaze 2.0?

Someone once told me there's no coincidences in politics. I've yet to prove it wrong.

It’s rare that I have to admit I was wrong but this is one of those times. The results of three Alberta by-elections, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, and two Edmonton ridings of Ellerslie and Strathcona, didn’t cause any seat upsets but the upstart little Republican Party of Alberta did far better than I was willing to give them credit for. To be fair, I haven’t believed in fairytales since I was a child and I have mistakenly presumed that people who are old enough to vote don’t either. My bad.

Unofficial results of Monday’s by-elections; Elections Alberta. Official results available July 3, 2025.

As a person who was raised by a farm girl, and has lived in rural ridings most of my life, what confounds me the most about separatism is that people in rural generally have a solid grasp of how little in life is actually easy; yet far too many seem willing to buy into this idea that separation, or the fabled “independence”, would be just that. I really don’t get it. I can happily cede that analysis to someone else for now because this new development in the Alberta political landscape is far more interesting to me today.

The UCP performed as expected, retaining the rural seat and losing both in Edmonton. Yawn. The only exciting possibility was that the UCP would be a stronger contender in Ellerslie, with their former Progressive Conservative candidate (who actually seemed like a Pete Guthrie-type ethical conservative). It was not to be.

The good news for the ABNDP is that their lead over the UCP in Edmonton hasn’t dissipated as much as recent polling suggested. Ellerslie was the riding most of us were watching since Strathcona was seen as an NDP stronghold. The numbers didn’t move that much for the UCP, who received 36 per cent of the vote in 2023, and 38 per cent in the by-election.

With that being said, Eric Grenier on a recent episode of the Numbers did have an intriguing addition; he figured that if the NDP held at least 14 points over the UCP in Ellerslie, they were still on track to keep Edmonton. The Liberals and Alberta Party pulled 7 points between them in the by-election (neither ran candidates in the general where the NDP saw 61 per cent) and the NDP’s share dropped down to 50 per cent on Monday. That left them only 12 (he got 13 so I may have rounded up) points ahead, and therefore not “safe” according to his figures, but also not in as much danger (at least, yet).

Alberta NDP leader Naheed Nenshi received a strong show of support from Edmonton-Strathcona; and it was not guaranteed. Calgary-Mountain View, a riding that had been held by Dr. David Swann since 2004, went to the Alberta NDP’s Kathleen Ganley in 2019 even though it was contested by then-liberal leader David Khan. The question at the time was whether Mountain View was a “liberal riding” or a “David Swann riding”. Mr. Khan’s loss suggested it had been the latter.

Mr. Nenshi secured a more than respectable 82 per cent of support from voters in Strathcona, suggesting that the riding is solidly NDP, and not just a Rachel Notley riding. Some relief was felt there, I’m sure, from both the party and its leader.

The NDP also did well enough in the rural riding, and can probably be pleased enough that they attracted more votes than the unapologetically, if unfathomably, U.S. wannabes. I’ve certainly been accused of being selfish before, but not “force everyone around me to join another country because I’m too lazy or important to move there myself” selfish. Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills saw around 40 per cent turnout, which is a decent showing in a by-election; Ellerslie had a dismal 18 per cent.

By-elections are strange though, and with typically lower turnout there’s not much to be gained in comparison to general elections. It doesn’t take away from the fact that the Republican Party of Alberta (RPA) did do better than one of its competitors: the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition.

Republicans in Alberta

There’s a lot we don’t know about the RPA and what we do know about its leader is that he’s been… let’s call it “helpful” to the UCP’s political shenanigans in the past. RPA leader Cam Davies ran Jeff Callaway’s campaign communications in the 2017 UCP leadership race. Mr. Callaway was widely purported to have been a “kamikaze” candidate for Jason Kenney. That is, documents showed, and Mr. Davies himself admitted, that Mr. Callaway’s communications coordinated and collaborated with Mr. Kenney’s, taking on the role of Brian Jean’s main adversary, ostensibly so Mr. Kenney could run his campaign without attacking his main opponent as Mr. Callaway’s campaign would do it for them.

Mr. Davies also received numerous fines for breaking campaign finance rules — in the tens of thousands of dollars — and his role in that inevitably begs the question: is he running a legitimate party, or is he again coordinating with UCP leadership?

A separate party allows for the topic to remain in headlines, Mr. Davies can keep the conversation going, and appear to “push” Danielle Smith and her party to keep moving on things the separatists are demanding. Ms. Smith gets to claim that there’s movement behind it and act like she’s protecting the interests of her party, and the interests of a faction of voters, while doing exactly what she wanted to do in the first place: move the province closer to separation.

Ms. Smith has done more to advance the movement than any other premier, and it’s ludicrous to think it doesn’t have her full support. Mr. Davies and his RPA does allow for some plausible deniability; with her words, at least, even if they completely belie her actions. It’s probably enough for those who have to give their attention to other things in life, however.

There’s no guarantee that the RPA won’t just wrap itself up and refuse to run candidates in the general election like the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta did in 2019 because they were afraid to split the conservative vote. Mr. Davies, a “longtime Wildrose” supporter only cancelled his UCP membership in April of this year, just a few days before the UCP tabled amendments to the Election Act to make it easier for the separatists to get a referendum on the agenda.

There’s also the little matter of suddenly paying off those fines from the “Callaway kamikaze caper” right before the Republican leader registered.

Jason Markusoff on the site formerly known as Twitter.

When I first began my foray into the politics of politics, I received a very helpful piece of advice: “there are no coincidences in politics.”

There is, though, among certain people, a thirst for power. Even if someone started a party for one reason, they could find that there’s enough support to take it in a new, previously unsupported, direction. With that in mind, it’s worth gaming out anyway.

The RPA performed better than the Wildrose Loyalty Coalition generally, but also better in the by-election than the WLC managed in the same ridings in 2023. Wildrose Loyalty Coalition appeared suddenly in the 2023 election with 54 candidates after its leader, Paul Hinman, had been forced out as leader of the Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta (WIPA).

I get the feeling that Mr. Hinman hasn’t been willing to play along with what’s best for his fellow conservatives. I cannot say I get the same feeling from Mr. Davies, based on his past actions. Therefore, I give some additional import to Mr. Davies’ appearance with the RPA, as it relates to the WLC.

In 2023, the WLC received 264 votes in Ellerslie, 93 in Strathcona, and 183 in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. In the by-election they earned 41, 24, and 189 respectively. The RPA, though, earned 291 in Ellerslie, 65 in Strathcona, and 2,705 in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.

The fact that the RPA crushed WLC in the rural riding is noteworthy because it suggests that the WLC does not have any momentum behind it and that while Ms. Smith failed to decimate the Wildrose on her own, it may have finally reached Alberta Liberals levels of “over”. No offence to the Liberals. My ideal set-up was the 2015 Legislature where five parties represented multiple voices and leanings in the province. As much as I’d love to have that back, I’m under no illusion it’s possible in this political climate.

If Cam Davies is running a real party…

As it was a by-election with no threat to the status of the governing conservatives, it’s more than possible that voters may have been more willing to support a radical third option than they would in a general. Though the RPA and Mr. Davies’ message will undoubtedly play better in rural, it’s unlikely they will pose a serious threat to the UCP’s support in the near future; if nothing changes.

An unsuccessful separation referendum, and the resulting economic damage, and if Cam Davies is running a real party, could change everything for the UCP.

If the RPA a real party, and Danielle Smith is actually doing everything she can to keep the separatists happy and voting for the UCP, she runs the risk of taking it a step too far and alienating conservatives who want nothing to do with separation. Ms. Smith’s leadership turned off a number of conservatives who wouldn’t vote for her candidates in the 2023 election, and the UCP cannot afford to lose more voters.

The support for RPA in a rural riding was relatively impressive, in comparison to the conservative alternative offered by the WLC, but that isn’t where I expect the UCP to have problems. If the RPA is a real party that is still going to be around, and run candidates, in 2027 (which I’m still not convinced of), the 291 votes the RPA pulled in Edmonton Ellerslie has my attention because the UCP cannot afford to lose votes in urban centres.

In 2023, the NDP won two Calgary ridings by less than 50 votes, one by less than 200, and two by less than 300. The UCP won one by less than 150, and three by less than 700. Two more were lost by less than 900. The NDP won Banff by 303, and the UCP won Lethbridge East by 636.

If UCP members (more than half of whom claim they are in favour of separating from Canada) aren’t happy with the way their separatist dreams play out over the next couple of years, the Republicans (if they’re a real party) may have an edge.

Meanwhile, Ms. Smith is still playing her part.

She has announced her intention to embark on yet another version of the “Fair Deal Panel”, last produced by Jason Kenney, which was a remake of Ralph Klein’s committee tasked with “Strengthening the role of Alberta in Confederation”, which was in response to the 2001 “Firewall Letter”.

The Fair Deal Panel was, one signatory of the Firewall Letter, an opportunity to “cut separatism off at the knees,” yet obviously did not. Apparently, constantly telling people they could have “tens of billions” or “hundreds of billions” to pay for all the government expenses just keeps the dream alive.

Shockingly enough.

Whether the Republican Party is a real player, or just a new character in Alberta’s political theatre is not yet clear, but there’s no doubt that its sudden appearance is being used by the UCP to push forward with the age-old separatist fantasy.

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