Beware of false bravado

There were no winners in staving off the Trump tariff threats, but there were warnings.

After a day of anxiously awaiting the decision of a lunatic, the cries of victory from certain segments rang hollow.

There were no winners; only warnings.

On Sunday evening, I was waiting for the Tokyo Stock Exchange to open. I’m not a trader, or a finance expert (by any means), but Tokyo acts as an early indication of what New York and Toronto will be dealing with on Monday morning.

It’s been said that Donald Trump’s inclinations can be swayed by few things but the stock market is very high on that list.

That he was willing to crater the U.S. economy was picked up by Tokyo as their first day of trading after Mr. Trump announced blanket tariffs on the country’s two closest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, and single largest trading partner, China.

The markets opened at 5:00PM MDT.

Mr. Trump announced a call with the Prime Minister at 5:30PM MDT.

On Monday morning, hours after the New York Stock Exchange opened, the announcement that tariffs on Mexico would be paused after Mr. Trump’s conversation with Mexico’s President Sheinbaum stemmed the losses somewhat, but the majors remained in the red for the day as no agreement was reached with Canada.

The White House claimed success after Mexico reiterated its 2021 border commitment, and Canada reiterated its December 2024 border commitment; albeit with fewer, and smaller, words.

Aside from a few loud voices within partisan echo chambers, none had the gall to claim success, or point fingers at anyone other than the person who led the chaotic day for markets, investment, and overall certainty in the future.

The tariff threat was only paused, after all.

While U.S. auto makers, oil producers, and grocery retailers all breathed a sigh of relief alongside their Mexican, and Canadian counterparts, the damage is only beginning.

They say it takes a lifetime to build trust and only a moment to take it all away.

Canada and the United States has built that trust over decades, and many generations. Canada, and Mexico, have opened their countries to working with U.S.-based businesses as those businesses sought to leverage the usually stronger American dollar to their advantage to increase profit margins.

For too long, Canada and Mexico have acted as partners in good faith, despite trade agreements that disproportionately favoured U.S. legal authority, usurped intellectual property, and exploited labour.

And when their idiot-in-chief came not only for the trade relationship, with a willingness to inflict pain on their own economy and the livelihoods of their own people, we learned that thoughts and prayers aren’t just for their own children but everything U.S. lawmakers are unwilling to stand up for.

When push comes to shove, they will choose loyalty to anyone claiming to stand up for their country because they were groomed to be patriots first, and that always left them vulnerable to blindly following a demagogue with a flag.

It wasn’t just the North American trade relationship that was damaged, however.

As Mr. Trump only paused the threat, the signal sent to every investor both on and off the continent was “hold onto your money”. While the threat of tariffs exist for imported goods and services to the U.S., foreign investment could stagnate.

Capital investment in any industry that trades with the U.S. is likely to be put on hold until they see how far Mr. Trump will go, and to what end, and what lengths Canada will be forced to go in response.

Canadians, at least, have been given a heads up that if we don’t want to become collateral damage in Mr. Trump’s “Me First” moment, we will have to think differently about the direction we want for Canada’s future.

We’re in a far more privileged position than those in the U.S. because Mr. Trump showed us that his bluster is real; he is neither a friend nor partner to Canada, and if he’s willing to forfeit the livelihoods of his own people, no one should trust his intentions toward us.

Whether Mr. Trump plans to continue to hold Canada responsible for his country’s fentanyl crisis, or manages to find a way to make Canadians pay to sell their goods in the U.S., or is serious about wanting to annex our country, none of it benefits Canadians, or speaks to much of a future relationship to be had with us.

Seeing the chaos Mr. Trump is willing to cause in his own country gives Canadians a much clearer picture of what we are facing: a future for Canada that does not rely on a mutually beneficial relationship with the United States.

In Canada, and for Canada, we must build our way forward.

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