Last week in AB: July 8, 2025

There's fire in Alberta and not all of it is bad -- for once.

Alberta

The biggest news — A PC revival

It’s probably worth repeating that I dislike all political parties equally and I truly believe a political party is nothing more than an empty vessel to be filled and fueled by the people who show up. The separatists and Christo-conspiracists showed up for the UCP and made sure it represented them. The NDP tried to build out their support base without allowing even their most dedicated members in rural to have a voice (in some cases not even access to their own membership lists). So what about the potential revival of an Alberta Progressive Conservative party? Well, it too will become whatever those who show up want it to be. And if they’re starting from scratch, they should find a way to ensure they don’t get TBA’d.

While I’m thrilled about the possibility of a progressive conservative alternative, I understand that it could be what any party could: great, or not even close. In the meantime, it’s kind of fun to watch partisans freak out about it. The separatists — who have become mightily emboldened by Danielle Smith’s attempts to placate them — are finally afraid they might be stuck with a lame duck UCP that will never get near government again, while others are claiming that neither the Hon. Pete Guthrie nor Scott Sinclair are “progressive.”

And now you see why they had to create a third party. If the UCP is catering to responsibility-free libertarianism, and the progressives are demanding your credentials at the door, there’s a large population of Albertans who are in the space between.

I don’t think Danielle Smith will call an early election because that would garner too much attention to what she and her party have been doing.

I do think she will use her majority government to instead push more of the separatist demands through while they have the power to do so. Once again, the only people who can stop her are UCP MLAs — and the PCs only need four of them to come to their senses.

There are 38 NDP MLAs, two independents (PC), and 47 UCP MLAs. If there are just four other UCP MLAs who are as concerned as Mr. Guthrie and Mr. Sinclair with how Smith’s government is operating, they can force the UCP to listen by joining the PCs. Six independents, or independents-turned PC MLAs, would give opposition in the legislature enough votes to bring down an out-of-control governing party.

They don’t have to bring the government down — one or two could allow the UCP to continue governing through confidence votes like the Budget — but that number alone would ensure that the governing party would, in fact, have to “listen to” and “take advice from” the opposition.

Who could be next?

I did some shorts with Markham Hislop about this and if I was a gambler, I’d put my money on former Indigenous Relations Minister Rick Wilson. The Hon. Rick Wilson spent six years in that role, and anyone I know who knows him has said that he was entirely invested in the relationships he was building. Now, who knows? Maybe he’s a gambler as well and can’t afford to be without that Ministerial top-up of an additional $57,566 per annum.

What I do know is that he was both visibly and audibly choking up over being moved out of his role after the Premier gave the separatists their “gift” of reducing signature requirements to get a petition to separate from Canada on a referendum ballot. He had previously admitted that he could not defend his government’s decisions to the people he had been working so closely with the past six years. If he’s the man many around him believed him to be, I’d say his days are numbered.

During the UCP leadership race, the Hon. Rajan Sawhney (who replaced Hon. Mr. Wilson in Indigenous Relations) had initially said she would not seek re-election in 2023 but changed her mind after Sonya Savage announced she would also not seek re-election. The Hon. Ms. Sawhney also made a spirited attempt at vying for the UCP leadership role in 2022, much of it in opposition to Danielle Smith.

Whatever reason Ms. Sawhney had for opposing Danielle Smith’s leadership then has surely only increased, and the considerations she had for not seeking re-election may still be of import. Those issues, combined with moving into the line of fire of Indigenous Relations, could become overwhelming. As such, she’s next on my list.

One other Minister, Nate Glubish of Service Alberta, is someone who has been able to mostly fly under the radar. His portfolio is not politicized anywhere near as much as others and I don’t know a lot about him but I can say he’s not one that stands out as being an absolute dick. Unfortunately, that is the unit of measurement I believe is most useful for this particular exercise.

Just look at Brian Jean and Rebecca Schulz in comparison and you’ll understand what I mean.

Any potential additions to the independent caucus also wouldn’t be “good soldiers”. Searle Turton, Matt Jones, Jason Nixon, Tanya Fir, Angela Pitt, Demetrios Nicolaides, and Adriana LaGrange are not going anywhere, and neither are the conspiracy nuts, Eric Bouchard, Shane Getson, Scott Cyr, and Lacombe-Ponoka’s Poop Cookie — not that anyone else would want them.

There are possibly some backbenchers who would like the opportunity to have bigger roles — in public service, not Danielle Smith’s government. Grande Prairie-Wapiti MLA Ron Wiebe, Camrose MLA Jackie Lovely, Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo MLA Tany Yao, and Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock MLA Glenn van Dijken could be possible, either for being consistently overlooked or because they’re already considering not running again.

Luckily, a PC party wouldn’t need many floor crossers to be impactful because there are almost as few stellar options available as they would require to do so. Don’t think that hasn’t been a disappointing look at the state of affairs of Alberta’s governing caucus. Fricking Jason Kenney.

Speaking of wishful thinking…

There is that little by-election in Battle River-Wainwright where CPC leader Pierre Poilievre is going through the motions of a campaign to replace MP Damian Kurek after getting him to step down so Mr. Poilievre could have a safe enough riding that would never exchange a blue sign for an actual representative. Residents of BRC head to the polls August 18.

With that being said, there are challengers in the riding who aren’t just looking for those residents to shell out for a one-way ticket to Ottawa.

Bonnie Critchley, a Canadian Armed Forces veteran who served in Afghanistan and retired as a Master Corporal, is a local resident running as an Independent. MCpl Critchley wrote an open letter to the longest ballot committee asking them to refrain from launching another “protest” in the riding because it would be a distraction from sincere independents. Solid points for a solid argument.

I also have the utmost respect for someone who chose active service to their country, and all Canadians, rather than seeking the well-paid passive service of career-elected official. MCpl Critchley’s presence in the race is a stark reminder that some people want more for themselves, our country, and its citizens, than likes and shares on social media. Find out more about Bonnie Critchley here.

Sarah Spanier has also put her name forward. Since I live in a rural town, and have travelled to many others across the province as a post-secondary ambassador, her focus on being able to “stay and succeed” in rural resonated with me. Rural is a fabulous place to live — if only the locale offered opportunities for more people to make a decent living there as well.

I’m obviously partial to people who just say “no” to partisanship generally, but there’s a special place in my politically-tainted heart for those that have the courage to put their names forward in a riding they actually care about. They stand as a reminder that we could do better, if we actually wanted to.

Ontario cars for AB and pipeline support from ON

It’s Stampede week but there was one announcement that drew some attention: a memorandum of understanding between Alberta and Ontario on interprovincial trade.

We could thank Mark Carney for his focus on “one Canadian economy” or the idiot in chief down south for trying to decimate said economy, but whether a positive or negative influence, it’s forcing Canadian premiers to work together.

At a press conference Monday, Premiers Doug Ford and Danielle Smith announced that they would offer support to one another’s Trump-afflicted industries. Alberta will ensure the government fleet purchases made in Canada vehicles, and Ontario will support additional pipeline development through Manitoba to ensure national energy security that is not vulnerable to the whims of a hostile foreign government.

The only thing that stuck out to me was when Mr. Ford was recounting a story about someone saying to him that Canada could be “like Saudi Arabia” (in oil wealth) and he said he wanted to jump over the table and “hug them” for it. Much like the pretense that Alberta could have built a Norway-sized fund from oil, what Norway and Saudi Arabia have in common that is lacking in Alberta, and Canada, is the willingness to put public benefit over private. Government ownership of oil and gas is what made those countries wealthy — not that you’ll hear the distinction from either of those premiers.

Speaking of he should not be named…

The 90-day reprieve on ridiculous tariffs on U.S. businesses and citizens is set to end August 2. In a fun exchange between a CNN anchor and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says many of the hundred countries they applied tariffs to didn’t even bother contacting the U.S. to “make a deal”.

In a bizarre but ‘on brand’ twist, the U.S. Administration appears to be simultaneously threatening countries — presumably through governance channels — with the renewed tariffs and reminding government officials that businesses are welcome to relocate to the U.S. to avoid tariffs.

Markets began to fall Monday after the social media post.

In response to the Administration ending trade talks over the implementation of Canada’s Digital Services Tax legislation — after giving those same companies advanced notice to increase rates in order to pay the tax —Canada cancelled its implementation, effectively giving those companies a windfall, in order to resume “negotiations” with a troupe of bad faith actor no one trusts.

Blech.

Summertime signatures

There’s two things looking for signatures (and volunteers to collect them) this summer: Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canada petition to get a referendum question on not separating, and the PC party’s registration.

Mr. Lukaszuk’s petition needs a few hundred thousand signatures and the PCs could use a number that should scare the UCP into governing for everyone in this province, not just a loud minority.

I remain hopeful :)

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