Part I: Alberta separatist campaign has begun

The separatists are officially on tour. The following is an excerpt of one event.

That separatist sentiment causes business and investment uncertainty should not be a surprise. That Alberta separatists are relying on the misconception that if only we didn’t have to contribute to federal revenues with taxes, or allow them to regulate industry that affects more than just the land, air, and water within our own borders, Alberta would be even wealthier than we already are, is a fair summary. That they are ignoring the connection between the two is a feature for them and a problem for the rest of us.

Leger released polling results from May 9th to 12th which indicated that approximately 29 per cent of Albertans would support separation if a referendum were held today. A poll is not a vote, and it’s known that being asked for an opinion on something you weren’t thinking about until the moment you were asked is not necessarily indicative of how people would actually vote, but one thing polling is exceptionally good at is measuring sentiment over time; which is likely why they’ve begun to collect the data points. Polling consistently showed, for at least 18 months, the Conservative Party of Canada was on track to wipe out the Liberals if an election were held that day. One could also say it effectively measured an expected outcome if nothing changed.

In the federal landscape, things changed. Donald Trump began threatening our economy and our sovereignty, Justin Trudeau stepped down, Mark Carney won the leadership race and “axed the tax”, Pierre Poilievre could not or would not address Mr. Trump’s threats, and, I would argue, because all of those things were the reality facing Canadians during the election campaign, the CPC lost the election.

If any one of those things were different, it may have changed the outcome. Polling has to assume that nothing changes from the situation that exists today. It’s incredibly helpful in the moment, and over time, so long as nothing changes.

Changes are already, afoot, however. ATCO’s Nancy Southern says tha separation talks are “unhelpful” and has investors questioning the political landscape, Calgary Chamber of Commerce Chair Debra Yedlin finally spoke up about the “movement” causing business uncertainty, and there are assuredly more businesses who may have been looking at the province that won’t make a public announcement but may put any intentions they had on hold simply because uncertainty does not provide the foundation for a sound investment opportunity.

In certain pockets of the province, they’ve convinced themselves a conservative utopia would preclude them from having to negotiate, cooperate, or compromise with anyone they disagree with; even though it would take all of that, and more, as an independent country. It’s such a small, self-centred space to exist in that it can hardly be described as a “worldview”, but the self-appointed voices of this movement are out trying to sell it as one to our friends, families, and neighbours. Since one cannot be properly armed if they don’t know what awaits them, I listened to an event they held in Brooks on May 17.

S. Todd Beasley

S. Todd Beasley, a former UCP nomination candidate in Brooks who was tossed from the race in 2018, organized the event, inviting Dr. Dennis Modry, founder, but no longer principal, of the Alberta Prosperity Project, Vincent Byfield (son of the late Ted Byfield), Cory Morgan and Dr. Michael Wagner from the Western Standard, Danny Hoszak former chair of the Canadian Cattleman’s Association, as well as part of the Agriculture Task Force with the Wildrose Party.

“Elections have consequences,” Mr. Beasley began. “The east voted; unfortunately they voted for more law-breaking, more western oppression, more of the same, certainly, under a Justin Trudeau government. Well, now it’s our turn. At the end of the day, with this gift that Danielle Smith has given us, I think we have an opportunity to put a future in place for our children and grandchildren.”

“Folks, there is going to be a referendum on Alberta separation, there’s no question about it. The premier has lowered the bar so low Dr. Modry, as head of the APP, they’ve already crossed the threshold. I believe people have to educate themselves and that’s what today is all about.”

Pierre Elliot Trudeau figures prominently. That resources in Alberta, Canada were ever seen as a means to provide any benefit to the rest of the country is deemed an affront. Forget the fact that it would have provided everything Alberta’s government today claims to want: an energy corridor straight to the east coast supplying customers in every province along the way. Their fabled “no more pipelines” law wouldn’t have been required, consultation with Indigenous Peoples wasn’t a thing back then, and we didn’t have near the pushback on fossil fuel development then, either.

“I remember elections were already decided before Manitoba’s votes were even counted,” he said. “Policies that affect us are decided in places like the 905 in Toronto, 2000 miles from Alberta; we have nothing in common with those people. They create policies that cause real harm and they’ve been doing it for generations.”

“This coming vote that we’re going to have, we must put the winning conditions in place. When I (say) people deserve expert answers to the questions they have, it’s not the case of just going to a website and saying ‘well what about First Nations, or what about our pension plan or what about our debt obligations or what about this or what about that;’ every one of those questions deserve an expert answer. I followed the Scottish Independence movement and what they did was created a white paper that was delivered to every mailbox in Scotland, so when people wake up in the morning and they have their morning coffee, and they say ‘I want to research this’, they literally have that paper in front of them.”

Assuredly, trying to control the access to information in the age of technology is simply wishful thinking, but in targeted areas like rural where there are still people who don’t “go online”, the mailbox and local news is the only way to reach them.

Much of the rhetoric relies on myth-building, essentially repeating the same stories we’ve been told for generations here. To many, it’s simply “common sense” that “the east” hates “the west”; non-conservatives “hate” conservatives. One would think it should be more difficult to convince a bunch of dudes in rural Alberta that they’re victims but, apparently, it’s super easy so long as they’re all selling the same brand of snake oil.

Mr. Beasley tells an anecdote about Jean Chretien saying “I prefer not to deal with those people,” referring to “the west.”

“He got elected on that,” Mr. Beasley states emphatically. I couldn’t find any record of Mr. Chretien saying it, but the willingness to believe is much stronger than the willingness to find out if it’s true for the audiences that these people will target.

Equalization is, as always, a hot topic of debate in Alberta. Many Alberta conservatives don’t like that equalization exists at the federal level but they ignore it provincially because those who complain the loudest tend to be in areas that receive the most (rural).

There’s no new argument to put forward, but if you’d like to read a 32-page paper from the School of Public Policy, fill your boots.

“I reserve particular disdain for Quebec society,” he adds. “Or ‘the leach of confederation,’ or as Maclean’s magazine calls them ‘the most corrupt province in the country’.”

Sort of true. Maclean’s refused to comply with a demand for an apology from then-Premier Jean Charest for calling foul on the province’s scandal-ridden governments.

Mr. Beasley recounts a story that Peter Lougheed gave Quebec money “magnanimously, for a nation-building project” for hydro-electricity projects. Again, something I was unable to verify, but the Heritage Fund was used to lend money to other provinces before we stopped making deposits. And you’ll never hear these guys talk about how the federal government, along with Ontario and Alberta provincial governments, invested in the oil sands during a capital crunch from our preferred investors, the U.S..

A big concern is getting resources to the coast; something that will only be more difficult as an independent country. Despite the many claims of “International Law”, there is no recourse if two independent states cannot negotiate more access; the country through which that access is demanded retains the right to say “no”.

“There is no fixing this; anyone who says they’ll come to the table and they’ll act reasonable, not true,” Mr. Beasley claimed. “Nefarious voices are going to be working against us. The CBC is not our friend. They ultimately will spew their propaganda as they always have; they’re bought and paid for — thanks Justin Trudeau and his $600 million dollars (for the National Post, Globe and Mail, and most local newspaper publishers).”

“We need to create a White Paper, so everyone has the information they need to make an informed decision.”

Dr. Dennis Modry, founder (but no longer CEO of) Alberta Prosperity Project

Dr. Dennis Modry, a man who has made my brain hurt with his illogical meanderings before, began by saying that as a cardiac surgeon, he had the opportunity to help one person at a time, but in this role (as head separatist) he has “the opportunity to help millions.”

Mark Carney, he said, is much more dangerous than Justin Trudeau because he’s more intelligent. “Values”, written by Mark Carney in 2022, Dr. Modry says, claims that “western society is rotten to the core,” because of capitalism, and freedom to develop resources. I haven’t read it myself but there are other, less dismissive takeaways.

He recounted talking with Ralph Klein in 2003, saying he asked the Premier if he would join Canada if he were the leader of Alberta the sovereign nation. “Of course not,” Mr. Klein supposedly said. Dr. Modry claims he wrote a paper called “Alberta at a Crossroads”, which he meant to be used as a guideline to hold a separation referendum to use as leverage against the federal government.

“In a very simplistic way, sovereignty means self-governance without external interference,” Dr. Modry said. “And if we take it down to the individual level, you are all sovereign to an extent, as an individual.”

“You give up your sovereignty, that is being in charge of controlling your future, controlling what you are willing to buy in terms of goods and services, you give that up when you let another authority regulate you. You give that up when you let other authorities or governments take your money from you, which prevents you from purchasing the goods and services that you want for yourself and your family, and your future.”

He says that it’s similar at the provincial level, and Bill 1 Alberta Sovereignty within a united Canada Act, was passed because of federal encroachment on provincial authority, such as the carbon tax.

“The fix was in from the get-go,” Dr. Modry claims. “Wilfred Laurier said in Winnipeg in 1904, it’s in Clifford Sifton Volume 2, page 95, ‘we desire and all Canadian patriots desire that the great trade of the prairies shall go to enrich our people in the east, to build up our factories and our places of work and in every legitimate way, contribute to its prosperity.”

“We have lost over $800 billion dollars given to Ottawa, consequent to equalization, consequent to the national energy policy, and consequent to other confiscatory policies of the federal government, and we haven’t received a cent in return.”

He also repeated Danielle Smith’s “half a trillion in lost investment” but claimed it was “the last 14 years”.

“We have a different set of values. We’re not particularly interested in keeping our natural resources in the ground. We’re not interested in a central bank digital currency which will control every aspect of our life. We’re not particularly in agreement with diversity, equity, and inclusion (Usian language; in Canada it’s EDI) policy or environmental and social governance (ESG) policy.”

Well, he isn’t, perhaps. Apparently, we should be worried about the government restricting our freedoms again because of some other pandemic, but going back to the days when men made all the decisions, and investors didn’t care about the environment? That’s good for everyone (on that stage, at least).

Compliance, with these things, he asserts, is received by the threat of withholding transfer payments. The Premier, he says, has made demands and said that if they are not, it will be a threat to national unity, “but she hasn’t said she would take control of federal taxation, or ending equalization” (those are not optional — even for Quebec).

He figures separation will be easier than legal challenges because those take years while the Clarity Act makes separation simple.

Of course that isn’t true. The Clarity Act requires first that there is a “clear majority” of people who want to separate in order for the federal government to begin negotiations. What is the magic number? No one knows. Would some people say that it’s unacceptable to force 40 per cent (2,000,000) Albertans from their homes, but perfectly legitimate if 20 per cent (1,000,000) are? And what happens if 65 per cent of the province voted for secession, but only 10 per cent of those agreed with the terms? Is it too late?

Those are not questions they have to ask; to them, just being able to have a conservative government for the next decade or so before they die is enough. If it works out, they’ll stay, and if being their own country costs more than it does to run a province, they’ll take their money and run. The consequences are not the same for the guys running this campaign.

He did cause a bit of a stir by letting the people in the room know that the average Albertan makes $78,000/year. The video doesn’t pan the audience but I imagine a lot of them who were lured there were shocked to hear the first fact Dr. Modry dropped. In my experience, people who are the angriest about all of the money that leaves the province, don’t make anywhere near the average income in Alberta but feel they should benefit more from those tax dollars than they do.

Dr. Modry claims that Albertans will only pay 10 per cent tax in an independent Alberta. So, either corporations will pay a whole lot more than they do now, but entirely to Alberta, or the province just won’t be providing the services it does. If they really think that “$600 billion” should have stayed in Alberta, they don’t seem too chuffed about how to get it rolling into the Treasury.

Finally, Dr. Modry claimed that an independent Alberta would be “recognized by the United States; we know that,” he said. And since that 10 per cent income tax won’t be enough to pay for a military, there’s nothing they would be able to do if the U.S. decides not to.

For posterity

Initially, I wasn’t going to write this all out. I listen to these things, and read a lot of ridiculous ramblings that don’t need to be detailed, it simply helps me understand and/or informs my opinion. After I listened to Mr. Beasley and Mr. Modry the first time, I thought maybe it should be public because campaigns for the “no thanks, separatists” side (where I will be) should know what they’re up against.

For a number of readers outside of Alberta, it will also help them understand why they hear such mad arguments coming out of the province — some of this will focus on where it started and how it’s grown into the monster of misinformation that it is today. In the case of the next speaker, it does that within a single paragraph.

So, I will leave you with that for today and go back to compiling the rest for a thrilling week of face-palming, wildly exaggerated, and/or completely false history that has been passed down for decades in Alberta.

If you haven’t yet become a paying subscriber, take pity on the fact that I listened to this twice and, please, consider doing so.